As the 2022-23 college basketball season enters its Champ Week, Daniel Benjamin looks at “who’s in” and “who’s out” in the NCAA Tournament field. This is the eighth edition of his bracketology.
What We Know
Below I have listed the teams that my locks for the NCAA Tournament as “Champ Week” is in full tilt. According to my projections, there are 57 teams whose NCAA Tournament tickets are punched, including all 32 conference tournament winners, even if they have yet to be determined.
Thus, there are 11 spots up for grabs as conference tournaments take shape. Twenty-one teams theoretically still have a legitimate shot at earning an at-large bid. However, four teams — Michigan State, Iowa, Boise State, and Memphis — are essentially in the Big Dance though a win this week will go a long way to secure their bid.
1. A-Sun: Kennesaw State (26-8)
2. America East: Semifinals (3/7) Vermont, Binghamton, U-Mass-Lowell, and New Hampshire are the teams remaining.
3. American (1): Houston
4. Atlantic -10: Begins conference tournament this week. VCU won the regular season championship.
5. ACC (5) Miami, Virginia, Duke, Clemson, Pitt, NC State
6. Big 12 (6): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State, TCU
7. Big East (5): Marquette, Xavier, UConn, Creighton, UConn, Providence
8. Big Sky: Northern Arizona, Montana State, Montana, and Weber Weber State are in the conference semis.
9. Big South: UNC Asheville (27-7) earned the conference’s automatic bid.
10. Big Ten (4): Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern, Maryland
11. Big West: Conference begins this week. UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine shared the regular season crown.
12. CAA: UNC Wilmington faces Charleston in conference finals. Charleston won the regular season title.
13. Conference USA: Conference begins Tournament this week. Florida Atlantic won the regular season crown.
14. Horizon League: Northern Kentucky faces Cleveland State in conference finals.
15. Ivy: Conference Tournament begins Friday with Cornell, Yale; Princeton, Penn
16. MAAC: Conference Tournament begins this week.
17. MVC: Drake earned an automatic berth
18. NEC: Fairleigh Dickinson earned the conference’s automatic berth.
19. MAC: Conference Tournament begins this week. Iona won the regular season title.
20. MEAC: Conference Tournament begins this week. Howard won the regular season crown.
21. Mountain West: San Diego State
22. OVC: Southeast Missouri State (19-16) earned the conference’s automatic bid.
23. Pac-12 (3): UCLA, Arizona, USC
24. Patriot League: Colgate vs. Lafayette in the conference tournament title.
25. Southeastern Conference (5): Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee,
26. Southern: Furman earns automatic berth.
27. Southland Conference: Tournament Semifinals (3/7) McNeese State, New Orleans, Texas A&M, and Northwestern State are the teams left. TAMCC won the regular season crown.
28. SWAC: Conference Tournament begins on Wednesday. Grambling and Alcorn State shared the regular season crown
29. Summit: Oral Roberts faces North Dakota State in conference finals. ORU won the regular season title.
30. Sun Belt Conference: Louisiana earns automatic bid.
31 WCC: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s. Gonzaga faces Saint Mary’s in the conference tournament title game.
32 WAC: Conference Tournament begins this week
Teams fighting for the last 11 steps
Four teams whose bids are nearly secured. A win in the conference tournament will likely cement their spot Dance spot.
Michigan State, Iowa, Boise State, Memphis
Teams that are fighting for final at-large seven bids (in order). These teams need one or two wins this week and some help.
Auburn, Utah State, Nevada, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Illinois, Rutgers. Arkansas, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, New Mexico, UNC, Michigan, Wisconsin, Santa Clara, Florida Atlantic, Charleston
No. 1 Seeds
The four No. 1 seeds from my seventh edition of bracketology went 2-2 this past weekend. Alabama and Kansas lost this past weekend. Meanwhile, Houston and UCLA picked up victories.
While the four teams remain on the top line, the order changes slightly. Houston moves up to the No. 1 overall seed. Meanwhile, Alabama slides down one spot to No. 2. Kansas and UCLA remain third and fourth, respectively.
NCAA projected first-round matchups: No.1 vs. No. 16:
No. 1 Houston Cougars vs. the winner of Fairleigh Dickinson Knights/Howard Bison play in-game.
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. the winner of the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders/Southeast Missouri State Redhawks play-in game.
No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks vs. Grambling Tigers
4. No. 7 UCLA Bruins vs. Cleveland State Vikings
No. 2 Seeds
Like the top line, two of my No. 2 seeds fell this weekend. Purdue, the top No. 2 team, and Gonzaga won. Gonzaga advanced to the WCC finals on Tuesday morning with a victory over San Francisco.
Baylor and Arizona were the teams that suffered setbacks. While the Bears remain on the second line, the Wildcats drop to the third seed. Texas, which defeated Kansas on Saturday, moves up a line.
Projecting the first-round matchups: No. 2 vs. 15 seeds:
No.5 Purdue Boilermakers vs. Vermont Catamounts
No. 6 Baylor Bears vs. Colgate Raiders
No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs
No. 8 Texas Longhorns vs. Iona Gaels
No. 3 Seeds
Arizona and Texas swapped places, with the Wildcats slotted at No. 9. Marquette, which has won six straight contests, bumps Kansas State one spot down and takes over the 10th overall spot.
While K-State, which fell to Iowa State on Saturday, slipped from 10th to 11th, Tennessee dropped to the fourth line following its loss to Auburn on Saturday. The Volunteers have lost six of their last nine games. UConn moves up from the fourth line, taking Tennessee’s slot at No. 12.
Projecting the first-round matchups: No. 3 vs. 14 seeds:
No. 9 Arizona Wildcats vs. Montana State Bobcats
No. 10 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Furman Paladines
No. 11 Kansas State vs. Kennesaw State Owls
No. 12 UConn (21-8) vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
Drake won the OVC
No. 4 Seeds
Virginia, Miami, UConn, and Indiana all won this past week. With UConn bolts up to No. 12, Tennessee drops to No. 14.
Projecting first-round matchups No. 4 vs. No. 13:
No. 13 Virginia Cavaliers vs. Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers vs. Bradley Braves.
No. 15 Indiana Hoosiers vs. Toledo Rockets
No. 16 Miami Hurricanes vs. Yale Bulldogs
No. 5 Seeds
All my No. 5 seeds from a week ago won this past weekend. Therefore, the order stays intact.
Projecting No. 5 vs. No. 12 seeds
No. 17 San Diego State Aztecs vs. Utah Valey Wolverines
No. 18 Saint Mary’s College Gaels vs. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
No. 19 Xavier Musketeers vs. Charleston Cougars
No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies vs. VCU Rams
No. 6 Seeds
TCU, Pitt, and Maryland lost. Meanwhile, Northwestern snapped a three-game losing game streak with a victory over Rutgers on Saturday. Kentucky, playing its best basketball of the season, moves up two notches from No. 26 to No. 24.
No. 21 TCU Horned Frogs (19-10) vs. play-in game-winner between Arkansas Razorbacks/Rutgers Scarlett Knights.
No. 22 Northwestern Wildcats (20-9) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
No. 23 Maryland Terrapins vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
No. 24 Creighton Bluejays vs.Illinois Fighting Illini/ Mississippi State Bulldogs play-in game-winner.
No. 7 Seeds
Like Kentucky, Duke is playing its best basketball of the season and is a solid No. 7 seed. The Blue Devils, who have run off six straight victories, moves up to No. 26 overall. Creighton and North Carolina State remain steady at No. 25 and No. 28, respectively, while Pitt moves down to No. 27.
Projecting No. 7 vs. No. 10 seeds
No. 25 Kentucky Wildcats vs. Utah State Aggies
No. 26 Duke Blue Devils vs. Auburn Tigers
No. 27 Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Memphis Tigers
No. 28 North Carolina State vs. Boise State Broncos
USC won
No. 8 Seeds
Projecting No. 8 vs. No. 9 seeds
No. 29. Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
No. 30 Iowa State Cyclones vs. Michigan State Spartans
No. 31 Missouri Tigers vs. USC Trojans
No. 32 Providence Friars vs. Clemson Tigers
Last 4 In
Arkansas Razorbacks
Rutgers Scarlett Knights
West Virginia Mountaineers
Nevada Wolf Pack
First 4 Out
Arizona State Sun Devils
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Penn State Nittany Lions
New Mexico Lobos
Next 4 Out
North Carolina Tar Heels
Michigan Wolverines
Wisconsin Badgers
Santa Clara Broncos
SAINT PETER’S VS FAIRFIELD PICK, PREVIEW & BETTING ODDS FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 7TH
