Check out our free Tennessee vs Mississippi State pick and preview for this NCAA Basketball game in Starkville. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this College Basketball matchup.
Tennessee vs Mississippi State Pick & Preview: Tuesday, January 17th Betting Odds
Volunteers vs Bulldogs Matchup at a Glance
- Sport: NCAAB
- Teams: Tennessee Volunteers at Mississippi State Bulldogs
- Where: Starkville at Humphrey Coliseum
- Date: Tuesday, January 17th
- Betting Odds: Tennessee -6.5, TENN -298 | MSPST +234 O/U 122.5
The Tennessee Volunteers head into today’s game in what will be their 18th game of the season, posting a record of 14-3. On the road, the Volunteers will be playing their 4th game of the season, having gone 3-1. So far, the Volunteers have been favored 16 times, going 14-2 straight up. In today’s matchup, the oddsmakers have Tennessee as -6.5 point favorites.
Tennessee will be counting on another strong performance from the team’s leading scorer Santiago Vescovi who is averaging 12.93 points per game for the Volunteers. Vescovi is also important to the team’s ability to score on the perimeter. So far, he leads the team in 3-point shots made. Also key to the Volunteers’ offensive game plan is the play of Olivier Nkamhoua who has hit 58.5% of his field goal attempts on his way to averaging 11.06 points per game.
On offense, Tennessee comes into the game looking to control the pace of play, as they are just 490th in possessions per game. Even with their preference to slow the game down, the Volunteers’ are scoring at a rate similar to the NCAA average at 73.2 points per game. So far, 40.63% of their shots have come from beyond the arc, where they have connected at a rate of 35.8%.
Mississippi State will take the floor against the Volunteers with an overall record of 12-5. So far this season, Mississippi State has played 13 games at home, sitting with a record of 11-2. For the season, Mississippi State has been the underdog in 3 games, sitting with a mark of 0-3. Currently, the oddsmakers have the lines set with the Bulldogs being +6.5 point underdogs.
Tolu Smith comes into today’s game as the Bulldogs’ leading scorer at 14.0 points per contest. Not only has Smith been key to the team’s scoring efforts, but he is Mississippi State’s top rebounder at 7.76 boards per contest. Behind Smith, the team has benefited from the strong play of D.J Jeffries, who is second on the team in scoring at 9.35 points per game. Overall, he has hit 33.1% of his shots and is adding 6.29 boards per game.
Offensive production has been hard to come by for Mississippi State this season, as they are currently ranked 209th in college basketball at 70.9 points per game. A major reason for low scoring totals is the fact that they have played at a below average pace, and have struggled to knock down outside shots. As a team, the Bulldogs’ 3-point shooting percentage sits at just 29.5%, placing them 479th in the NCAA.
Free Spread Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs +6.5
After boiling down all the statistics and trends, it is clear why the oddsmakers have placed the Tennessee Volunteers as the favorites to win. Not only do the Mississippi State Bulldogs have a mediocre record vs the spread at home of late 3-6-1, but Tennessee also has the statistical edge in 3-pointers made per game and overall field goal percentage. Yet, our model shows that the current odds of -6.5 in favor of the Volunteers is too high and there is good value on grabbing Mississippi State vs the spread. While most bettors will likely be piling on the Tennessee Volunteers as the favorite, we full good about taking the oppsite side and grabbing Mississippi State taking the points.
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