Check out our free UMBC vs Maine pick and preview for this NCAA Basketball game in Orono. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this College Basketball matchup.
UMBC vs Maine Pick & Preview: Saturday, February 4th Betting Odds
Retrievers vs Black Bears Matchup at a Glance
- Sport: NCAAB
- Teams: UMBC Retrievers at Maine Black Bears
- Where: Orono at Memorial Gymnasium (ME)
- Date: Saturday, February 4th
- Betting Odds: UMBC -2.5, UMBC -146 | MAINE +119 O/U 146.0
UMBC heads into this matchup having played 24 games and have an overall record sitting at 15-9. So far, the Retrievers have played 11 games on the road, with a record of 4-7. This season, UMBC has been favored to win in 13 games, sitting with a mark of 12-1. For today’s contest, UMBC has a betting line set -2.5 points in their favor.
UMBC’s leading scorer this season is Colton Lawrence, who is averaging 13.04 points per contest. So far, Lawrence has accounted for 17.05% of the team’s scoring. In addition, he is contributing 3.67 rebounds per game and 1.71 assists. Jacob Boonyasith is the second leading scorer for the Retrievers, averaging 12.04 points per game. Between him and Boonyasith, they are accounting for 32.8% of the team’s scoring.
On offense, UMBC comes into the game looking to control the pace of play, as they are just 416th in possessions per game. Even with their preference to slow the game down, the Retrievers’ are scoring at a rate similar to the NCAA average at 73.7 points per game. So far, 42.47% of their shots have come from beyond the arc, where they have connected at a rate of 37.8%.
Black Bears Preview:
Maine will take the floor against the Retrievers with an overall record of 9-13. So far this season, Maine has played 9 games at home, sitting with a record of 5-4. For the season, Maine has been the underdog in 14 games, sitting with a mark of 3-11. Currently, the oddsmakers have the lines set with the Black Bears being +2.5 point underdogs.
Maine will be counting on another strong performance from the team’s leading scorer Gedi Juozapaitis who is averaging 15.14 points per game for the Black Bears. Juozapaitis is also important to the team’s ability to score on the perimeter. So far, he leads the team in 3-point shots made. Also key to the Black Bears’ offensive game plan is the play of Kellen Tynes who has hit 49.2% of his field goal attempts on his way to averaging 13.95 points per game.
Offensive production has been hard to come by for Maine this season, as they are currently ranked 433rd in college basketball at 62.4 points per game. A major reason for low scoring totals is the fact that they have played at a below average pace, and have struggled to knock down outside shots. As a team, the Black Bears’ 3-point shooting percentage sits at just 31.1%, placing them 412th in the NCAA.
Free Spread Prediction: Maine Black Bears +2.5
After boiling down all the statistics and trends, it is clear why the oddsmakers have placed the UMBC Retrievers as the favorites to win. Not only do the Maine Black Bears have a mediocre record vs the spread at home of late 5-5, but UMBC also has the statistical edge in 3-pointers made per game and overall field goal percentage. Yet, our model shows that the current odds of -2.5 in favor of the Retrievers is too high and there is good value on grabbing Maine vs the spread. While most bettors will likely be piling on the UMBC Retrievers as the favorite, we full good about taking the oppsite side and grabbing Maine taking the points.