The PGA Tour is in the second week of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Last week, Dustin Johnson scorched the field by posting 30-under par for an 11-shot victory in the Northern Trust Open at TPC Boston.
This week, the field was trimmed from 125 to 70 players for the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields, with the top 30 in points after Sunday’s final round qualifying for the Tour Championship.
Betting Odds – BMW Championship
The course this week is just about the opposite of last week. Olympia Fields is a major tournament-caliber layout with thick rough and firm, lightning-fast greens. In round one, only three players broke par with Hideki Matsuyama leading with a three-under-par 67.
He enters the second round of the BMW Championship with odds of +650 according to the Caesars Casino and Sportsbook website, which means a $10 bet will win you $65, plus the $10 for the bet for a payout of $75. As expected, he is the favorite entering Friday’s play, but it’s a long tournament, and a lot can change between now and Sunday afternoon.
Despite an opening-round 71, Dustin Johnson remains a strong contender at +800, the same as Rory McIlroy after his even-par 70 on Thursday. With 69 players in the field and the golf course playing very tough, I’m expecting a lot of leaderboard changes over the next three days.
There is also no cut for this week’s tournament, so players who would ordinarily be out of contention after a poor first round still have a chance to make some noise on the weekend, especially since they will be going out early Saturday morning in pristine conditions.
The long shots at the BMW Championship are Talor Gooch, who shot a six over 76 and Marc Leishman after an abysmal 10-over 80. If you’re looking to take a flyer and think one of these guys can get hot, you can put down $10 with the hope of winning over $2,500.
On a golf course like Olympia Fields, it’s unlikely someone will put up a 59 like Scottie Scheffler did last week, but Gooch is only nine shot off the lead, and he has three days to make up the ground.
Long Odds Darkhorses
Aside from McIlroy, there are no big names within three shots of the lead. Matsuyama can be an effective front runner, but he’s also prone to some inconsistencies that a course like Olympia Fields can expose. A few excellent and accomplished players within striking distance may be discounted because they haven’t necessarily been in top form recently.
Billy Horschel, a former FedEx Cup champion, has played well lately and is at even par, with odds of +2500. He’s a solid ball striker and can keep the ball in the fairway, which is a must on the U.S. Open style setup the players face this week. He’s also navigated the pressure of playing for the $10 million that awaits at the end of the FedEx Cup.
A former major champion, Adam Scott, is sitting at two-over-par with odds of +3000. Scott is another good ball striker who keeps the ball in the fairway. His putting has always been suspect, but as he showed by winning the Masters, he can put together a good week on fast greens.
And of course, there’s always Tiger Woods. The best player of this generation struggled to a frustrating three over par 73 in round one, but he is still a threat on challenging courses. He’s now won three times since returning to action in 2018, so after knocking off some rust last week, it might be worth giving him a shot at odds of +4500.