A/B Testing is a concept that you mainly see only applied to Internet advertising. But, lately, I’ve noticed an Internet site that is applying it to their TV ads, the company is Trivago.com. I’m sure most of you have noticed, there’s this new early-30’s Australian woman doing some of their TV spots – along with, the Mid-to-Late 40’s gentleman that’s been their spokesperson for many years. For the record, I do believe that, the younger/more aesthetically pleasing to the eye Australian spokeswoman will win out and become the new face of the Trivago company for years to come!
Well, this got me thinking: Why can’t a crude form of A/B Testing be applied to handicapping horse races?
Example: My ODMT (Odds Data Mining Tool) was designed to be used primarily for -3-horse Dutching. Why not expand it to four, (initially), then, Matchup a 5-2er versus an 8-1 shot, and the PTF (Post Time Favorite) up against an even higher-priced horse, say a 12-1er?
I already know what most of you are thinking: That doesn’t seem fair?! Well, neither does matching-up a fully-grey-breaded older man versus a much younger woman with a killer Australian accent! Right or wrong? Hence the logic that I’ve opted on going with.
I’m all about trying to find hidden value with the way in which I bet on horses. My ODMT can do this is in real-time, and/or one can use my product through more traditional speed ratings/projections.
Recently, I was dead wrong about my initial selection (#1 Pterov) with regard to last weekend’s Iowa Derby, but as the screen shots below will show, #6 (Hence) was clearly the ‘value horse’. And, as most of you might agree, comparing the numbers (or better still, projections) of a 2-1er with a 7-2er is more than fair!
The first screen shot I originally posted on Twitter, was many hours in advance (just note the lower right time stamp). And in the second one, you’ll clearly notice that the ‘Runs to Price’ ratings changed in favor of the #6 over the #1 horse, just as the gate sprung. Additionally, a few simple discretionary facets (like better post & First Time HOF’er, jockey Mike Smith) going for it on #6 Hence, could have easily made his early (84) projection, a much better (88), at least.
If the truth be told, I allowed my personal biases toward Mike Smith to cloud my judgement – and that’s another free tip worth committing to memory! Furthermore, I honestly thought the #1 (Petrov) was going to go to the front, and play a little ‘Catch me if you Can’. That, never materialized and the #1 horse never had a chance over the final 3/16ths of a mile. In retrospect, I certainly should have made Hence my top selection. I mean, a point of difference (using the Morning Line odds) is only about a Neck in differential, at the wire.
In closing, with about 2-minutes to post, Hence was 5-2 instead of 7-2, and obviously, this would have made the Hence horse a clear Top Choice with around a (90) ‘Runs to Price’ projection. I’m of the firm & solemn belief that my Runs to Price feature is a revolutionary (and much needed) evolution in betting the ponies.ed to have him on board. He will be bringing a series we like to call “Horse Sense” where he will look at a number of different topics to help you win at horse racing betting. You can find more about Mr. Tuttle and what he offers over at www.oddsdatamining.com
The above was a guest post by Joseph J. Tuttle