San Antonio Stakes Stakes Betting Preview

By: Ace the “Horse Whisperer”

 

Santa Anita Opening Day is going to be something. With so many graded stakes races on the card, this is the last opportunity for a ton of starters to simply face their age group one last time.

This race, though, the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes, will be for three-year-olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles on the main dirt course for the prize pool of $200,000. A talented field of six will be running, and no one is more than 6/1 morning line. This one will be going as Race 6 with a post time at 4:32 p.m. (ET). Let’s handicap the entire field.

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(1) Hopkins- 6/1 Morning Line Odds

This horse has had some really nice races, and I am surprised this is the first time that they’ll be stepping up in class and running for a stakes race. They ran a 104-speed figure in their maiden and lost. It then took them two tries to break their maiden, but they’ve then come back to win an optional claiming.

This horse does have some impressive times, but they haven’t ever won going further than 7 furlongs. JJ Hernandez is winning at 26% in routes, and that’s the same percentage trainer Bob Baffert is hitting at in graded stakes.

(2) Stiletto Boy- 5/1 Morning Line Odds

Even if you toss out their last race, where they took sixth to Flightline, their recent form hasn’t been great. This horse did have their best race ever over this course with a 110-speed figure which is ridiculous.

Mike Smith is getting onboard for the first time and is winning at 32% in routes. Trainer Ed Moger Jr. is winning at 12% this year. I just don’t think this horse has it anymore at this level.

(3) Breakfast Ride- 4/1 Morning Line Odds

This horse does have some impressive wins as of late, but they are all at much lower levels. Joel Rosario is getting up and is winning at 20% on the year, while John Sadler is winning at 18% in graded stakes. They’d have to take a huge step up in class to win, but I don’t understand the odds. This horse should go off at 8/1.

(4) Hudson Ridge- 6/1 Morning Line Odds

This horse has also not been in good form as of late, and they’re coming back to try the dirt while they’ve been on the turf forever. Flavien Prat is jumping on and winning at 24%. Bob Baffert is winning at 29% this year.

Bob Baffert must know something, or he is basically saying maybe if this horse can get back on track, then he’d be able to retire in good form.

(5) Heywoods Beach- 7/2 Morning Line Odds

This horse won a Grade 3 two back and then took a good second at Keeneland next out. Ramon Vasquez is super hot. Ramon Vasquez may only be winning at 17% for the year. They are winning at 24% in the last week. John Sadler is winning at 16%. This is a big cutback in distance, and they should be able to stalk.

(6) Country Grammer- 7/5 Morning Line Odds

This horse failed as the favorite last out in a Grade 1, and took second to Flightline before that by 19 lengths. They did have the most impressive win when they won the Saudi Cup, and Frankie Dettori is getting back on board. Bob Baffert has had this race circled for a while.

Pick for the Race: (5) Heywoods Beach

I think they get the jump on Country Grammer, and they win the San Antonio Stakes by cutting back, as their recent speed figures look pretty darn good.

 


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