The 2023 MLB Season changes to the league’s format have sped up the pace of play, and we’ve already seen some interesting betting trends forming less than a month into the season. There’s been teams that have struggled, like the 5-19 Oakland Athletics and teams that have dominated like the 20-4 Tampa Bay Rays, but it really seems like there’s quite the battle going on in the middle of the field. It will be interesting to see how betting trends strengthen or change their position as the rest of the lengthy MLB season pushes on. Below I’ll go over some of the major betting trends from the 2023 MLB season so far.
Typically home-field advantage is considered an important factor in the outcome of a game. But after conflicting results in the season so far, it’s time to question how much of an impact home-field advantage really has on the outcome in a game. There’s been 357 total MLB games played this season and surprisingly, the Away team have won 181 of these contests for a winning percentage of 50.7.
However, this isn’t the only notable statistic when comparing home and away teams. Away teams that enter a game as a betting favorite are 84-43 (.661), while home teams that enter a game as a favorite are just 133-96 (.581). Similarly, away teams that enter the game as a betting underdog are 96-133 (.419), compared to home teams that enter as an underdog are 43-84 (.339). These trends prove that home-field advantage might be as useful as some MLB teams might think.
Always Bet the Over
Another very interesting betting trend from the 2023 MLB season up to this point is the tendency of games to go over. Although there’ve been a number of spectacular pitching performances this season, the batters have come ready and have exploded for some all-around high-powered offense.
There’s been high scoring contests across the league which has led to a betting trend worth knowing. In the 357 total games up to this point,174 (.507) of them have gone over, while 169 (.493) have gone under. The over trend in the 2023 season has been helped greatly by the 31 games that have gone to extra innings, which has given the over a slight boost against the under.
Stay Away From Spread Favorites
A trend that is tied into the smaller impact of home-field advantage is the trends of home-team spreads versus away-team spreads. Away-team spread betting has dominated this season as it’s gone 209-148 (.585). However, what is even more noteworthy is the difference in betting the favorite’s spread versus the underdog’s spread.
It is always expected that the favorites will win the match more times than not, but when the spread is put into effect, the game’s outcome is supposed to be a clear fifty-fifty matchup. This hasn’t been the case this season, as the favorite’s spread has gone 165-192 (.462), showing the difficulty teams have had with overcoming the spread this season. While these trends provide value when looking at the betting trends early in the 2023 season, the season still has a long way to go and I expect these trends will shake up quite a bit as it keeps rolling on.
Read more about the 2023 MLB season.