Death, taxes and Jose Berrios at Target Field – the only guarantees in life. The righty is 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in four starts at home this season, pushing his record to 22-5 there since 2017. Overall, he is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA this season, while Angels starter Tyler Skaggs comes in with a 3-3 mark and a 4.70 ERA.

The Twins are 7-1 overall in games that Berrios starts on the mound this season. Five of those wins came by two runs or more, including the last three of his starts by a combined scored of 20-4. Berrios has only produced one non-quality start in eight outings, and the Twins still won that game.

The moneyline has the Minnesota Twins -132. I do think the line here is a bit miscalculated for the Twins with Berrios on the mound, and we should definitely take advantage of that. The Angels have played such an easy schedule of late against teams like the Royals, Blue Jays, Tigers and Orioles. But when they played a competent team like the Astros, the Angels lost by a combined score of 24-6.

Twins Hot Against Lefties

Minnesota will be without Nelson Cruz, who injured his wrist on a swing-and-miss in yesterday’s loss to the Tigers – this could be why the line is a bit lower. Nonetheless, the Twins rank in the top three of most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching this season.

Jorge Polanco has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season, with a .324 batting average, .393 on-base percentage, and 1.000 OPS. His numbers against lefties aren’t too shabby either, most notably his .293 ISO and a microscopic 13.9% K-rate in that split. If the bullpen comes in, not to worry – Polanco’s switch-hitting ability comes in handy.

Skaggs Hoping For Better Road

Tyler Skaggs has been far worse on the road this season than at home. In 18 1/3 innings, he’s allowed 23 hits, 14 runs (13 earned), four homers and a .311 opposing batting average – that’s a 1-3 record and 6.38 ERA. In Anaheim, it has been a much different story for Skaggs, with a 2-0 record and 2.19 ERA over 12 1/3 innings.

Twins Take Opener

The implied run total increased by a half-run, up to nine, in this game. Look for the Twins to still be a viable offense, even without their big bopper Cruz. I’m taking the Twins to win this one by a 7-3 score.

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