It’s Mike Trout’s world, and the rest of us are just living in it. This must be what it was like to live during the Mickey Mantle era. Trout just does everything, and everything at such a high level, he makes baseball look easy. He is hands-down the favorite to win another MVP award, but should he get your bet?
Odds to win A.L. MVP
- Mike Trout +150
- Aaron Judge +1200
- Alex Bregman +1200
- Francisco Lindor +1200
- Anthony Rendon +1600
- Matt Chapman +1600
- Gleyber Torres +2500
- Jose Ramirez +2500
- Josh Donaldson +2500
Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels (+150)
If you can find the +150 that I did, give it serious consideration. There are some places that have Mike Trout at +100 or lower. For something as unpredictable as an MVP award that is an amazing number. Although we are talking about an amazing player who has three MVP awards in the last six seasons and he’s been #1 or #2 in MVP voting in seven of the last eight seasons. He’s only played eight full seasons, by the way.
And he’s still only 28.
Aaron Judge – New York Yankees (+1200)
Injuries have derailed Aaron Judge in each of the last two seasons, so all his MVP hype is still based on his 2017 rookie campaign. For my money, I want to see something more recent before putting my hopes on Judge. He’s great, and the Yankees offense is going to provide numerous opportunities to accumulate numbers, but he’s averaged less than 400 at bats over the last two years.
Judge is a pass for me.
Alex Bregman – Houston Astros (+1200)
Bregman has finished top 5 in MVP voting in each of the last two seasons and was the runner up last year. He won’t turn 26 until the season starts, and I’m sure it will be a great season. But I fear that Baseball Writers Association of America voters will hold his team affiliation against him. Since this is a subjective award, I recommend proceeding on Bregman with caution.
Francisco Lindor – Cleveland Indians (+1200)
I think the +1200 on Francisco Lindor is extremely high. He’s a very good all-around player, but he won’t win a batting title, he won’t be among the leaders in home runs, and for you new school guys he won’t be at the top of the WAR leaderboard.
There just are too many other players who I think will put together better seasons.
Anthony Rendon – L.A. Angels (+1600) and Matt Chapman – Oakland A’s (+1600)
It’s hard to imagine Anthony Rendon outshining his teammate Trout. Hitting clean up behind Trout and Shohei Ohtani could see him reach another career-high in RBI, but he’s a longshot to win the MVP. I think the number should be higher than +1600.
Matt Chapman, on the other hand, has seen his home run totals rise by at least 10 in each of the last two seasons. If he does that again, putting him in the 45 home run range, and coupled with another gold glove, he becomes a dark horse worth backing.