DFS Picks: Major League Baseball is back and MLB DFS is back for the first time in two years. Thursday will be featuring 13 games instead of 15 because the Red Sox vs Orioles and Mets vs Nationals had to postpone their matchup.
Many are wondering what the best picks are for Opening Day DFS and I’m here to tell you who you want to draft from every position.
For the pitcher position, you are going to want to pick up Tyler Glasnow ($8,800) from Tampa Bay. They will be traveling to Miami to take on the Marlins.
This will probably be one of the only times you can own Glasnow for under $9K. He rated third in strikeout rate out of 81 pitchers who threw at least 50 innings.
The only problem with Glasnow is the number of home runs he gives up but that could be fixed this year with a new baseball. Don’t expect the Marlins who are projected by team FanGraphs to scored to second-fewest runs per game to light up Glasnow
The Phillies take on the Braves and your going to want to draft J.T. Realmuto ($5,500). In 54 plate appearances, Realmuto hit .386/.500/.591 with a 197wRC+.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,600) and the Cubs are taking on the Pirates. Rizzo is coming off a bad year and will start his comeback against pitcher Chad Kuhl. The righty was terrible last year finishing in the fifth percentile in xwOBA(.384), ERA (6.70), and barrels per batted ball rate (13.1%). The winds could be a potential issue for the hitters but with a player like Rizzo, I’m willing to take my chances.
Tampa Bay Rays Brandon Lowe is a great pick up for $4,600 and he will be facing Sandy Alcantara. The left-handed pitcher since 2019 has allowed left-handed batters to hit 1.4 home runs per nine innings giving him an xFIP of 5.58 within the split. Lowe has a lot of power and could start off 2021 with a bang.
The San Diego Padres are matched up against the Arizona Diamondbacks for opening day. Manny Machado ($5,700) will be facing lefty Madison Bumgarner which is a good thing.
Machado since 2019 has owned the seventh-best stats in ISO (.330) and wRC+ (170) against left-handed pitchers. Machado is a stud within the splits and Bumgarnder had a league’s worst 14.9% of batted balls were barreled up.
The Padres Shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. was the easy and obvious choice for this position. As we just spoke about before Bumgarner gave up the most hard-hit balls of any pitcher last season.
Tatis Jr. finished the season with an average exit velocity of 95.9 and a barrel rate of 19.5%. Just by those stats, you can understand why is this a great pick that will have great returns.
My initial pick was Red Sox J.D. Martinez ($4,300) but that game was postponed so instead I went with Padres outfielder Tommy Pham ($3,100) which might actually be the better choice. Pham started off slow in spring training but was eventually able to get control of himself and starting crushing the ball.
Since 2018 Pham has had a magnificent average of .318 and a wOBA of .539 against left-handed pitchers. Bumgarner is going to have some trouble against all these Padre right-handed hitters that dominate lefties.
Happy Opening Day to all the fans and organizations and I hope this lineup serves DFS players well and brings some large returns.