The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Las Vegas on Saturday, September 10, following the promotion’s first-ever event in Paris last week. T-Mobile Arena will host UFC 279, which is expected to be jam-packed with scintillating bouts. Kmazat Chimaev versus Nate Diaz welterweight match headlines the 13-fight card that begins with the early prelims at 6 p.m. (ET).
Parlay: Kmazat Chimaev, Li Jiangliang, and Norma Dumont
I like a three-legged parlay of Chimaev, Jiangliang, and Dumont. While I will give the trio’s parlay line, I will also give the best bets for each bout individually.
Chimaev should have an easy time with Nate Diaz in an important fight for both combatants. Chimaev looks to remain undefeated in 12 matches as a win would cement his place as a top title contender in the division.
Meanwhile, Diaz (21-13) is in the twilight of his career as his time with the UFC is coming to an end. Diaz has lost three of his last four fights though he has not had a match since June 2021.
Moreover, Chimaev has the advantage over Diaz in nearly every measurement. Therefore, I expect this fight to end very quickly as Chimaev has 10 finishes, with seven of them coming in the first. Two of Diaz’s last five losses have come before the final bell.
Similarly, I look for Jiangliang to pummel Tony Ferguson in another welterweight fight. Jiangliang, ranked in the top 15 of the division, has been pretty inconsistent. However, he has the physical and fighting traits – being big and powerful – that have given Ferguson considerable past problems.
Fifteen of Jianliang’s 19 victories have come via a finish, with 10 by knockout. The story is more about Ferguson, who is moving up in class.
The 38-year-old has lost four straight and has not looked good enough to match Jiangliang’s capabilities in any of those bouts. Granted, Ferguson has gone against strong competition during this losing streak, but he has lost via finishes twice, with the other two setbacks coming as unanimous decisions. He is coming off a brutal beatdown by Michael Chandler in his last outing.
Dumont’s match against Danyelle Wolf is almost as big as a mismatch, at least on paper, as Chimaev’s and Jiangliang’s blouts. Dumont (7-2) is coming off a split decision loss to Macy Chiasson, snapping a three-match win streak.
Wolf is fighting in the octagon for the second time in her career as she earned a UFC contract following a unanimous decision in her initial 2020 Dana White contender series bout. Wolf was a pro boxer before coming over to the UFC. Thus, Dumont is expected to take the match to the ground as Wolf is far from a complete MMA fighter.
Best Bet: Chimaev to win by TKO/KO or DQ (-150)
Chimaev is a massive favorite at –2500. So, if you think the Chechen will end the fight before the final bell, it makes sense to go with him by TKO/KO or DQ in any round.
Best Bet: Jiangling -360 to win.
While I like Jiangling to win and should finish Ferguson, the cagey veteran is just savvy enough to last the entire 15 min. However, you prefer to take Jiangliang to win via knockout/DQ; it is a very enticing wager at +110.
Best Bet: Dumont to win -450
Likewise, Dumont is a definite favorite, and she should win handily. However, only two of her victories have been via finishes, both by submission. But, if you genuinely believe that she will finish the fight early, it is likely to be by submission, which comes as an attractive +275 price tag.
3-leg Parlay: My trio of Best Bets are a +160.
Macy Chiasson vs. Irene Aldana
This women’s bantamweight bout could be one of the best fights of the night. Chiasson (9-2-0) is 5-2 in her UFC career and coming off a split decision victory over Norma Dumont. Only three of her UFC matches have finished before the conclusion, and just five of her nine career outings have not gone the distance.
Aldama (13-6-0) is fighting for the first time in over a year. She is just 6-4 in her UFC career. Moreover, seven of those matches have gone the distance.
I like Chiasson (+155) a tad better than Aldana (-180) in this one. However, the best bet is that the bout will go the distance.
Best Bets: Fight to go the distance (-175)
Other Best Bets
Jailton Almeida (-660) Over Anton Turkalj
Jake Collier (-410) Over Chris Barnett
Johnny Walker (+165) Over Ion Cutelaba