Would you believe it – we had a winning night! Let’s keep the train rolling. Here are the NBA best bets for Friday night.
Updates to all NBA metrics can be found below, they are the guide to these selections.
This week: 11-16-1 (-6.5 units)
NBA Season: 102-86-1 (+15.75u)
Follow me on Twitter: @griffybets
Let’s get to Friday’s picks.
NBA Best Bets: Friday April 30
A note before we begin. Props have been getting quite frustrating (and costly). I’m officially abandoning them until playoffs and more consistent lineups.
Now, let’s get to it.
Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio prefers to do their scoring in the paint, but the Celtics 6th-ranked interior defense is going to make things difficult for the Spurs offense. Couple in a San Antonio offense ranked 22nd against Boston’s 10th-ranked defense, and the arrow points in favor of Boston.
For the Celtics, they rank 11th shooting the three and the Spurs are a bottom-ten defending the outside shot. Plenty of advantages to go around for a Boston team desperate for wins.
2 units: Washington Wizards -6.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers
The Wizards have an advantage both scoring and defending the paint, enough for me to take them to cover the 6.5-points. Their offense also ranks higher and they play at a much faster pace. If they can control the tempo they should get the best of Cleveland.
Washington is 9-1 in their last ten games, Cleveland has lost four straight and are 2-8 in their last ten. Collin Sextion also remains out for the Cavs with a concussion. Go Wiz Go.
Utah Jazz-Phoenix Suns UNDER 220 points
This should be a great game – two teams ranked inside the top-ten on both sides of the ball. The under is built on each team’s preferences. Both the Jazz and the Suns prefer to shoot the three, but each defense ranks inside the top-five at defending the perimeter.
We’re betting on the quality of the defense reigning supreme on the night. Both teams also come in slow for pace, Utah 17th and Phoenix 22nd.
Lean of the night: Sixers -9.5
If Kevin Durant plays tonight, Blazers-Nets over is another pick. It’s a back-to-back and Kyrie is already out, so likely not playing this tonight.
The Rankings: NBA Best Bets
For the sake of showing my work and being a resource to you all, the rankings for the week are below. Beyond offensive and defensive rankings, we’ve got pace of play rankings and teams rankings on threes and points in the paint (on both sides of the ball).
Shoutout to TeamRankings.com for their treasure trove of statistics.
Rankings are created by averaging out the following:
- Points per game
- Effective field goal percentage
- Efficiency (off/def)
Pace is calculated by:
- Field goals attempted per game
- Possessions per game
|Offensive Ranking||Defensive Ranking|
Offensive Preferences vs. Defensive Weaknesses
|Offense: Points in Paint||Defense: Opponent’s Points in Paint (worst to best)|
|Offense: Three-Pointers Made||Defense: Opponent Three Point % (worst to best)|
Last piece: NBA Best Bets: Thursday 4/29