Building off my weekly NBA Totals to Target article, I’m expanding the content for NBA props/DFS to target each week.

The inspiration for the separate piece came last week, when the Bucks-Blazers game checked a lot of the proverbial boxes for an over. Poor defense, two strong offenses who play fast, and the Blazers offensive strength aligning with the Bucks defensive weakness.

The over was high, 237, and of course, it missed by just one point. However, the logic was sound, and to hedge a bit, we took all three of Giannis, Middleton and Lillard’s overs for points. All three hit.

It’s time we expand to more than just totals and spreads. So, what is this article about? This is a reference for the entire week of NBA games. I recommend you check out my weekly NBA offensive/defensive rankings, as those marks will still come into play here.

We’re drilling a level deeper by cross-examining team’s offensive preferences with the opposing’s defenses strengths/weaknesses.

On offense, the focus here is on league-ranks for points in the paint and three-pointers made. Defense: opponent’s points in paint rank and opposing three-point percentage.

We’re looking for egregious differences in ranks, i.e., top-ten team in threes made going against a bottom-ten team in stopping the three.

Without further ado, here’s the ranks consolidated, as of 4/5. We will update these each and every Monday.

Offense: Points in PaintDefense: Opponent’s Points in Paint (worst to best)
  1. Memphis
  2. Sacramento
  3. New Orleans
  4. Indiana
  5. Cleveland
  6. LA Lakers
  7. Chicago
  8. Washington
  9. Brooklyn
  10. Denver
  11. Minnesota
  12. Milwaukee
  13. Philadelphia
  14. Atlanta
  15. Boston
  16. San Antonio
  17. Houston
  18. Detroit
  19. Golden State
  20. Okla City
  21. Charlotte
  22. Phoenix
  23. New York
  24. Miami
  25. Dallas
  26. Utah
  27. LA Clippers
  28. Toronto
  29. Orlando
  30. Portland
  1. Sacramento
  2. Indiana
  3. Minnesota
  4. Chicago
  5. Utah
  6. Okla City
  7. Detroit
  8. Cleveland
  9. Houston
  10. Brooklyn
  11. San Antonio
  12. Atlanta
  13. Portland
  14. LA Lakers
  15. LA Clippers
  16. Charlotte
  17. Washington
  18. Philadelphia
  19. Golden State
  20. New Orleans
  21. Phoenix
  22. Memphis
  23. Orlando
  24. Boston
  25. Denver
  26. Dallas
  27. Milwaukee
  28. New York
  29. Toronto
  30. Miami


Offense: Three-Pointers MadeDefense: Opponent Three Point % (worst to best)
  1. Utah
  2. Portland
  3. Toronto
  4. Milwaukee
  5. Brooklyn
  6. LA Clippers
  7. Charlotte
  8. Golden State
  9. Dallas
  10. Houston
  11. Denver
  12. Boston
  13. Phoenix
  14. Okla City
  15. Minnesota
  16. Miami
  17. Atlanta
  18. Indiana
  19. Chicago
  20. Detroit
  21. Sacramento
  22. Orlando
  23. New Orleans
  24. New York
  25. Philadelphia
  26. Memphis
  27. LA Lakers
  28. San Antonio
  29. Washington
  30. Cleveland
  1. Sacramento
  2. Minnesota
  3. New Orleans
  4. Cleveland
  5. Washington
  6. San Antonio
  7. Detroit
  8. Milwaukee
  9. Indiana
  10. Toronto
  11. Portland
  12. Houston
  13. Boston
  14. Golden State
  15. Orlando
  16. Memphis
  17. LA Clippers
  18. Charlotte
  19. Brooklyn
  20. Dallas
  21. Philadelphia
  22. Denver
  23. Miami
  24. Okla City
  25. LA Lakers
  26. Chicago
  27. Atlanta
  28. Phoenix
  29. Utah
  30. New York

Games to Target: NBA Props/DFS

All we’re doing is marking away a few games where there is an overlap in good offenses and poor defenses.

What you do with this info is up to you. Build your Daily Fantasy lineups with these games in mind. Take just the stars for each team’s over. Go all-in and take every available player’s over.

This is a resource. Let’s get to the week of NBA action.


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Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards

Raptors have an advantage shooting the three in this one. Toronto is 3rd in threes made. Washington is 26th stopping the three. Gary Trent dropped six threes in the Raptors last game.

Sacramento Kings-Minnesota Timberwolves

Feel free to load up on this game. It’s marked as an over pick in my Totals piece. These defenses are not good at anything. The Kings and Timberwolves both rank in the top-ten of points in the paint. Consider targeting the slashing guards in this one.


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Chicago Bulls-Indiana Pacers

Both the Bulls and Pacers have a significant advantage in the paint. I took this game’s over and feel even better about it now. The recommendation here is to load up on props in this one.

Denver Nuggets vs. Detroit Pistons

Denver’s offense has a juicy matchup both in the paint and shooting the three against this porous Piston defense. Load up on your Nuggets props.

Golden State Warriors vs. Milwaukee Bucks

The Warriors should be able to get threes off successfully against Milwaukee.


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Indiana Pacers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota is going to be a constant target in this piece, their defense is atrocious. For this game, the Pacers should do well in the paint. Consider targeting bigs like Sabonis, if he returns to the lineup. If he doesn’t suit up, my focus is on Caris Levert’s over.

Brooklyn Nets vs. New Orleans Pelicans

This is going to be a high-scoring game. The Nets have a significant advantage shooting the three against this Pelicans defense. New Orleans is the 3rd best team in the paint, while the Nets are 20th defending in close.


Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder

I never thought I’d see the day, but the Cavs finally have an offensive matchup to their benefit. Cleveland is fifth in points in the paint, while the Thunder are the sixth-most generous defense. With a pair of slashing guards in Sexton and Garland, consider taking both to hit their points.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Same as the Warriors on Tuesday, the Mavericks should find success from three against the Bucks.


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Rinse and repeat.

Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs

The Nuggets once again have a strong advantage on both aspects of the offensive side. Don’t be shy with adding Nuggets to your DFS lineups.

Golden State Warriors vs. Washington Wizards

The Wizards cannot stop the three, so expect plenty of deep shots from the Warriors on Friday night.

That will wrap it for this week’s worth of targets. Plenty of games to choose from. Use this consolidated info however you please, it definitely highlights mismatches that we look for when betting on games.

For more NBA bets, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets. In case you missed it above, you can find my NBA totals this week below. Enjoy the week!

NBA Totals to Target: Week of 4/5


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