Check out our free Bucks vs Heat pick and preview for this NBA game in Miami. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this NBA matchup.

Bucks vs Heat NBA Pick & Preview

  • Sport: NBA
  • Teams: Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat
  • Where: Miami at FTX Arena
  • Date: Thursday, January 12th
  • Betting Odds MIA -2.5, MIL +116 | MIA -142 O/U OFF

The Bucks come into today’s matchup with an overall record of 27-14. So far, the team has gone 22-17-2 against the spread. Across the Bucks 2 game win streak, they have an average scoring margin of 6.5 points per game.

The Bucks will look to keep things rolling, as they previously beat the Hawks by a score of 114-105. Heading into the game, they were 4 point favorites against the spread, giving them an ATS win. Milwaukee played well enough in the second half to prevent the Hawks from making things interesting down the stretch, as they led by 21 going into halftime. In the win, Jrue Holiday led the team in scoring with 27 points on a field goal percentage of 47.6%.

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The Heat come into today’s matchup with an overall record of 22-20. So far, the team has gone 17-24-1 against the spread. In the teams past 3 games, their overall mark sits at 2-1. Miami is 2-1 vs the spread in these matchups.

The Heat are coming off a 112-111 win over the Thunder. Although they came away with a straight up win, it was not enough to cover the spread as they entered as 2 point favorites. The Heat made things more interesting than they hoped, as they gave back some of their 7 point halftime lead, by being outscored in the 2nd half. Leading the team in scoring was Jimmy Butler, as he contributed 35 points while hitting 35.3% of his shots.

Head To Head Recap & Stats

Last year, the Bucks and Heat had a competitive season series with each side posting a mark of 2-2. But, when playing at home, Miami had an above .500 record of 2-0. Similar to their season-long average, the Bucks averaged 110.75 points per game vs the Heat. On the other side, Miami saw an improvement in their scoring numbers when playing the Bucks, as they averaged 117.75 points per game in these matchups. Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Bucks and Heat have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just -2 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Miami. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 5-0. Combined, they averaged 226 points in these games.

Odds & Free Betting Analysis For This NBA Game

Through 41 games, Milwaukee is averaging 112.4 points per game (20th). When looking at the team’s pace of play, the Bucks are currently below the league average in possessions per game, averaging just 99.9 per contest. If the Bucks offense is going to turn things around, they will need to either generate more possessions or improve their overall efficiency. Currently, they are just 20th ranked team in 3-point shooting percentage.

On defense, the Bucks will look for some improved play, as they are currently the 19th ranked unit in points allowed per game.

Power-Foward Giannis Antetokounmpo currently leads the Bucks at 31.0 points per game. For the season, he is 4th in the NBA in usage rate and has taken 23.2% of the team’s field goal attempts. In addition to his scoring, Antetokounmpo is averaging 11.9 boards and 5.3 assists per contest. In today’s game, he is facing off against the NBA’s 9th ranked defense at defending power-fowards. Brook Lopez enters the game sitting second on the team in scoring. Through 40 games, he is averaging 14.7 and is 94th in the league in player efficiency rating.

This season, the Miami offense has had their problems scoring the ball as they are a below average unit at 108.8 points per game. The Heat come into the game as one of the league’s better 3-point shooting teams, connecting at a rate of 12.3 made 3’s per game. If the Heat offense is going to improve, they could look to play at a faster tempo, as they currently average just 97.2 possession per game. This could benefit the team as they are currently one of the better 3-point shooting units in the NBA.

Defensively, the Heat are one of the top performing units in the league, giving up 105.57 points per contest (4th).

A key injury to note in this game is the absence of the Heat 2nd leading scorer, Tyler Herro. In his 32 games, Herro is averaging 21.2 points per game while dishing out 4.4 assists and grabbing 6.0 rebounds. In his absence, the team will be looking for even more production out of Bam Adebayo, who leads the team and is 35th in the NBA at 21.4 points per contest. For the season, he has connected on 53.8% of his field goal attempts while taking 18.3% of the team’s shots from the floor.

Bucks vs Heat Pick

  • Free Spread Prediction: Heat -2.5
  • Free Total Prediction: Under OFF

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