Check out our free Heat vs Bucks pick and preview for this NBA game in Milwaukee. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this NBA matchup.
Heat vs Bucks NBA Pick & Preview
- Sport: NBA
- Teams: Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
- Where: Milwaukee at Fiserv Forum
- Date: Saturday, February 4th
- Betting Odds MIL -5.5, MIA +184 | MIL -224 O/U 221.5
The Heat come into today’s matchup with an overall record of 29-24. So far, the team has gone 21-30-2 against the spread. Over the team’s past 3 games, Miami has an overall record of 1-2, including going 1-2 against the spread.
The Heat are coming off a disappointing 106-104 loss to the Knicks. Going into the game, they were favored to win by 3 points. Miami was not able to turn things around in the 2nd half, as they trailed the Knicks by 2 going into halftime. Leading the team in scoring was Bam Adebayo, as he contributed 32 points while hitting 68.8% of his shots.
So far, the Bucks have put together an overall record of 35-17, while going 27-22-3 vs the spread. Milwaukee comes into the game having rattled off 6 straight wins. In these victories, the team has an average scoring margin of 12.17 points per game
The Bucks are coming off a 106-105 win over the Clippers. Although they came away with a straight up win, it was not enough to cover the spread as they entered as 4 point favorites. Milwaukee went on to win the game, despite trailing by 7 going into halftime. In the win, Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in scoring with 54 points on a field goal percentage of 53.8%.
Head To Head Recap & Stats
I In last year’s head-to-head meetings, the Heat averaged 117.75 points per game vs Milwaukee, which was an increase over their season-long average. While the Heat saw a boost in scoring, the Bucks averaged 110.75 points per contest in head-to-head meeting vs Miami. This figure was similar to season-long average. When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Heat hold the edge at 3-1-1. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 1 points per game. A combined average of 219 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.
Odds & Free Betting Analysis For This NBA Game
Through 53 games, the Heat are averaging 108.4 points per contest, placing them 30th in the NBA. When looking at the team’s pace of play, the Heat are currently below the league average in possessions per game, averaging just 96.8 per contest. This deliberate style of basketball has played a role in the unit ranking just 29th in made shots per game.
Defensively, the Heat are one of the top performing units in the league, giving up 105.57 points per contest (4th).
On offense, Bam Adebayo leads the Heat in scoring at 21.6 points per game, placing him 39th in the NBA. Overall, Adebayo has hit 54.3% of his shots while accounting for 18.4% of the team’s looks from the field. In today’s game, he will be working against a defensive unit that is 14th in points allowed to centers. At 20.3 points per game, Tyler Herro is the 2nd leading scorer for the Heat. For the season, he is 129th in the league in player efficiency rating, while posting a field goal percentage of 43.8%.
This season, the Milwaukee offense has had their problems scoring the ball as they are a below average unit at 114.1 points per game. So far, the Bucks are averaging 100.3 possessions per game, which places them below the NBA average. Not only is the team one of the more deliberate units in the NBA, they have yet to find their shooting stroke, ranking just 23rd in the league in field goal percentage 46.0%.
On defense, the Bucks will look for some improved play, as they are currently the 19th ranked unit in points allowed per game.
This season, the Bucks offense has primarily worked through Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday who are 1st and 2nd on the team in scoring. In his 41 games, Antetokounmpo is 3rd in the NBA at 32.3 points per game. So far, him and Holiday have accounted for 41% of the team’s field goal attempts while combining to average 51.5 points per contest. In addition to sitting 2nd on the team in scoring, Jrue Holiday is grabbing 5.2 rebounds for Milwaukee to go along with 7.2 assists.
Heat vs Bucks Pick
- Free Spread Prediction: Bucks -5.5
- Free Total Prediction: Over 221.5