Check out our free Heat vs Nuggets pick and preview for this NBA game in Denver. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this NBA matchup.
Heat vs Nuggets NBA Pick & Preview
- Sport: NBA
- Teams: Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets
- Where: Denver at Ball Arena
- Date: Friday, December 30th
- Betting Odds DEN -4.5, MIA +157 | DEN -189 O/U 223.5
So far, the Heat have put together an overall record of 18-17, while going 13-21-1 vs the spread. Miami will be going for their 3 straight win in today’s game as they have rattled off 2 straight wins.
The Heat will look to keep things rolling, as they previously beat the Lakers by a score of 112-98. Heading into the game, they were 9 point favorites against the spread, giving them an ATS win. Miami entered the second half with a 9a point lead, and were able to slightly extend that margin and prevent a second half comeback by the Lakers. Leading the team in scoring was Jimmy Butler, as he contributed 27 points while hitting 61.1% of his shots.
The Nuggets come into today’s matchup with an overall record of 22-12. So far, the team has gone 16-18-0 against the spread. In their previous 3 games, the Nuggets are averaging 122 points per game while allowing 119. This has led to a record of 2-1.
The Nuggets will be looking to bounce back from a 127-126 loss to the Kings. In terms of betting, Denver entered as 2 point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. Denver let an opportunity for a win slip away as they held a lead going into the 2nd half of action. Leading the team in scoring was Nikola Jokic, as he contributed 40 points while hitting 62.5% of his shots.
Head To Head Recap & Stats
In their 2 wins over the Heat, the Nuggets won by scores of 113-96 and 111-96. Last year, the Heat saw a drop in overall scoring when playing the Nuggets, averaging 103.5 points per game. While the Heat struggled on offense in the series, the Nuggets maintained their usual level of scoring at 116.5 vs Miami. The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Nuggets. In these matchups, Denver has averaged 114 points per game, while allowing 104. The over-under record in these same games is 4-1, with the teams combining for an average of 218 points per game.
Odds & Free Betting Analysis For This NBA Game
The Heat come into today’s game as the 30th ranked scoring offense at 108.2 points per game. The Heat come into the game as one of the league’s better 3-point shooting teams, connecting at a rate of 12.4 made 3’s per game. Miami is a strong candidate to see their overall offensive numbers improve, as not only are they a good outside shooting unit, but they do a good job taking care of the ball, ranking 5th in fewest turnovers per game.
Against the Nuggets, the Heat will look to continue their strong defensive play. For the year, they are the 4th ranked unit at 105.57 points per game.
Center Bam Adebayo currently leads the Heat at 20.9 points per game. For the season, he is 57th in the NBA in usage rate and has taken 18.0% of the team’s field goal attempts. In addition to his scoring, Adebayo is averaging 9.9 boards and 3.3 assists per contest. In today’s game, he is facing off against the NBA’s 9th ranked defense at defending centers. Tyler Herro enters the game sitting second on the team in scoring. Through 27 games, he is averaging 21.0 and is 97th in the league in player efficiency rating.
The Denver offense will take the floor in today’s game with the league’s 6th ranked offense at 116.2 points per game. Coming into today’s game, the Nuggets will be looking to improve their 3-point shooting numbers, as they are averaging just 11.7 made 3’s per game. Denver appears to be a candidate to have some offensive regression as not only are the a below average outside shooting unit, but they are generating free-throws at a rate below the NBA average.
Defensively, Denver has had its problems giving up an average of 110.41 points per game (14th).
Before getting a bet down on this matchup, be sure to check in on the health status of Jamal Murray who is 2nd on the team in scoring at 18.3 points per game. At the time of this article, Murray is listed as questionable. For the season, he is 3rd on the team in usage rate and is 96th in the NBA in player efficiency rating. If he is able to play, Denver benefit from having both of their top scorers as Nikola Jokic leads the team and is 20th in the league in scoring (25.7). For today’s matchup, he will going against a defense ranked 1st in points allowed to centers.
Heat vs Nuggets Pick
- Free Spread Prediction: Nuggets -4.5
- Free Total Prediction: Under 223.5