Inching closer to .500 but work to be done for sure. Here are the NBA best bets for Thursday night.

Updates to all NBA metrics can be found below, they are the guide to these selections.

This week: 8-15-1 (-8.5 units)

NBA Season: 99-85-1 (+13.75u)

Follow me on Twitter: @griffybets

Let’s get to Thursday’s picks.

NBA Best Bets: Thursday April 29

Milwaukee Bucks-Houston Rockets OVER 234 points

This bet is a combination of a few things. First, pace. Milwaukee ranks 2nd and Houston 11th. Second factor, the Bucks offense against the Houston defense. They alone should put up a hefty total. The final kicker is that each team has a stark advantage shooting the three.

Put it all together and you’ve got an over pick.

Luka Doncic mania takes hold from USA to Slovenia to Spain

Dallas Mavericks -7.5 at Detroit Pistons

The Mavericks on paper are just the better team at everything. I’ll gladly roll with Dallas tonight.

Golden State Warriors-Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 234 points

This is again a bet primarily on pace. Both teams rank inside the top six when it comes to playing fast. There’s also an advantage for Golden State shooting the three against this porous Minnesota defense. Instead of picking Curry’s gargantuan over/under, let’s just target the entire game.

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Zion Williamson OVER 28.5 points vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Our lone prop tonight is on Zion, going against a Thunder defense that ranks 26th in points in the paint. This should be a big game for the paint-beast.

The Rankings: NBA Best Bets

For the sake of showing my work and being a resource to you all, the rankings for the week are below. Beyond offensive and defensive rankings, we’ve got pace of play rankings and teams rankings on threes and points in the paint (on both sides of the ball).

Shoutout to TeamRankings.com for their treasure trove of statistics.

Rankings are created by averaging out the following:

  • Points per game
  • Effective field goal percentage
  • Efficiency (off/def)

Pace is calculated by:

  • Field goals attempted per game
  • Possessions per game
Offensive RankingDefensive Ranking
  1. Brooklyn
  2. LA Clippers
  3. Milwaukee
  4. Utah
  5. Denver
  6. Phoenix
  7. Sacramento
  8. New Orleans
  9. Portland
  10. Atlanta
  11. Dallas
  12. Boston
  13. Chicago
  14. Philadelphia
  15. Memphis
  16. Golden State
  17. Indiana
  18. Toronto
  19. Charlotte
  20. Washington
  21. LA Lakers
  22. San Antonio
  23. Miami
  24. New York
  25. Minnesota
  26. Detroit
  27. Houston
  28. Okla City
  29. Cleveland
  30. Orlando
  1. LA Lakers
  2. New York
  3. Utah
  4. Philadelphia
  5. Phoenix
  6. Miami
  7. LA Clippers
  8. Golden State
  9. San Antonio
  10. Boston
  11. Dallas
  12. Milwaukee
  13. Atlanta
  14. Memphis
  15. Toronto
  16. Indiana
  17. Denver
  18. Charlotte
  19. Detroit
  20. Chicago
  21. Cleveland
  22. Brooklyn
  23. Washington
  24. Okla City
  25. Orlando
  26. Houston
  27. Portland
  28. New Orleans
  29. Minnesota
  30. Sacramento
Pace
  1. Memphis
  2. Milwaukee
  3. Indiana
  4. Minnesota
  5. Washington
  6. Golden State
  7. Sacramento
  8. San Antonio
  9. New Orleans
  10. Chicago
  11. Houston
  12. Portland
  13. Orlando
  14. Okla City
  15. Brooklyn
  16. Toronto
  17. Utah
  18. Philadelphia
  19. Denver
  20. Boston
  21. Charlotte
  22. Phoenix
  23. LA Lakers
  24. Atlanta
  25. Detroit
  26. Dallas
  27. LA Clippers
  28. Cleveland
  29. New York
  30. Miami

Offensive Preferences vs. Defensive Weaknesses

Offense: Points in PaintDefense: Opponent’s Points in Paint (worst to best)
  1. Memphis
  2. New Orleans
  3. Indiana
  4. Sacramento
  5. Cleveland
  6. Washington
  7. Chicago
  8. Brooklyn
  9. LA Lakers
  10. Denver
  11. Minnesota
  12. Milwaukee
  13. Atlanta
  14. San Antonio
  15. Okla City
  16. Philadelphia
  17. Houston
  18. Detroit
  19. Boston
  20. Golden State
  21. Charlotte
  22. Phoenix
  23. New York
  24. Dallas
  25. Miami
  26. Utah
  27. Toronto
  28. LA Clippers
  29. Orlando
  30. Portland
  1. Sacramento
  2. Indiana
  3. Detroit
  4. Chicago
  5. Okla City
  6. Minnesota
  7. Cleveland
  8. Utah
  9. Portland
  10. Houston
  11. San Antonio
  12. Atlanta
  13. LA Lakers
  14. Brooklyn
  15. Washington
  16. Memphis
  17. LA Clippers
  18. Golden State
  19. Phoenix
  20. Charlotte
  21. New Orleans
  22. Orlando
  23. Philadelphia
  24. Denver
  25. Boston
  26. Dallas
  27. New York
  28. Milwaukee
  29. Toronto
  30. Miami

 

Offense: Three-Pointers MadeDefense: Opponent Three Point % (worst to best)
  1. Utah
  2. Portland
  3. Toronto
  4. Milwaukee
  5. LA Clippers
  6. Golden State
  7. Brooklyn
  8. Charlotte
  9. Dallas
  10. Houston
  11. Boston
  12. Denver
  13. Phoenix
  14. Minnesota
  15. Miami
  16. Atlanta
  17. Chicago
  18. Okla City
  19. Indiana
  20. Sacramento
  21. Detroit
  22. New York
  23. Memphis
  24. Orlando
  25. LA Lakers
  26. Philadelphia
  27. New Orleans
  28. Washington
  29. San Antonio
  30. Cleveland
  1. Minnesota
  2. Sacramento
  3. New Orleans
  4. Cleveland
  5. Houston
  6. Toronto
  7. Orlando
  8. San Antonio
  9. Washington
  10. Milwaukee
  11. Portland
  12. Boston
  13. Indiana
  14. Detroit
  15. Brooklyn
  16. Charlotte
  17. Philadelphia
  18. Memphis
  19. Dallas
  20. Golden State
  21. Denver
  22. Miami
  23. Okla City
  24. LA Clippers
  25. Chicago
  26. Phoenix
  27. LA Lakers
  28. Atlanta
  29. Utah
  30. New York

 

Last piece: NBA Best Bets: Wednesday 4/28

 


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