Inching closer to .500 but work to be done for sure. Here are the NBA best bets for Thursday night.
Updates to all NBA metrics can be found below, they are the guide to these selections.
This week: 8-15-1 (-8.5 units)
NBA Season: 99-85-1 (+13.75u)
Follow me on Twitter: @griffybets
Let’s get to Thursday’s picks.
NBA Best Bets: Thursday April 29
Milwaukee Bucks-Houston Rockets OVER 234 points
This bet is a combination of a few things. First, pace. Milwaukee ranks 2nd and Houston 11th. Second factor, the Bucks offense against the Houston defense. They alone should put up a hefty total. The final kicker is that each team has a stark advantage shooting the three.
Put it all together and you’ve got an over pick.
Dallas Mavericks -7.5 at Detroit Pistons
The Mavericks on paper are just the better team at everything. I’ll gladly roll with Dallas tonight.
Golden State Warriors-Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 234 points
This is again a bet primarily on pace. Both teams rank inside the top six when it comes to playing fast. There’s also an advantage for Golden State shooting the three against this porous Minnesota defense. Instead of picking Curry’s gargantuan over/under, let’s just target the entire game.
Zion Williamson OVER 28.5 points vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Our lone prop tonight is on Zion, going against a Thunder defense that ranks 26th in points in the paint. This should be a big game for the paint-beast.
The Rankings: NBA Best Bets
For the sake of showing my work and being a resource to you all, the rankings for the week are below. Beyond offensive and defensive rankings, we’ve got pace of play rankings and teams rankings on threes and points in the paint (on both sides of the ball).
Shoutout to TeamRankings.com for their treasure trove of statistics.
Rankings are created by averaging out the following:
- Points per game
- Effective field goal percentage
- Efficiency (off/def)
Pace is calculated by:
- Field goals attempted per game
- Possessions per game
| Offensive Ranking | Defensive Ranking |
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| Pace | |
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Offensive Preferences vs. Defensive Weaknesses
| Offense: Points in Paint | Defense: Opponent’s Points in Paint (worst to best) |
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| Offense: Three-Pointers Made | Defense: Opponent Three Point % (worst to best) |
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Last piece: NBA Best Bets: Wednesday 4/28
