We had a hell of a Tuesday, going 8-1. Let’s keep the momentum going with our NBA best bets for Wednesday night.
As a reminder, you can find offensive and defensive rankings at the bottom of this piece, along with pace of play.
We expanded to player props last week, looking at offensive preferences (threes or points in the paint). The goal is to find overlaps with a strong team in one category going against a team that struggles to stop that type of offense. Those rankings are also at the bottom.
This week: 12-7 (+4.5 units)
NBA Season: 55-39 (+19.5u)
Follow me on Twitter: @griffybets
Let’s get to Wednesday’s picks.
NBA Best Bets: Wednesday April 14
Washington Wizards-Sacramento Kings OVER 236.5 points
Just your classic “bet on awful defenses” pick from me here. The Wizards defense comes in ranked 26th and the Kings D is dead last.
Further aiding our cause is the Kings top-ten offense and that both of these teams are in the top-ten of pace. This should be a sloppy, up-tempo game with plenty of points.
In fact, I won’t just be betting the points here, there is reason to believe big games are in store for a few props as well.
Player props: Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook OVER
Beal and Westbrook both prefer to do their scoring close to the rim, explaining why the Wizards rank inside the top-ten of scoring in the paint. No team is more susceptible to inside scoring than Sacramento, perfect for these two players.
Player props: De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield OVER
The Hield bet is contingent on him playing, of course – he missed Monday’s game. If he does suit up, he’s shooting over ten threes per game and now gets himself a Wizards defense incapable of defending the perimeter. He’s my preferred pick if you had to choose just one.
Fox is coming off a monster game Monday night, dropping 43 points. In a game absent of defense, you can’t go wrong targeting the Kings leading scorer.
Player props: Devonte Graham and Terry Rozier OVERs against Cleveland Cavaliers
I’ll keep this one brief. The Hornets rank seventh in threes made, the Cavs rank 27th in stopping the three. Both Graham and Rozier are shooting over eight threes a game. Alternatively, you can bet on their over threes instead of points, but both seem poised for big games.
Player prop: Gary Trent OVER against San Antonio Spurs
*EDIT: Gary Trent is OUT tonight – this play is off
Exact same logic as above. The Spurs struggle to stop the three, the sixth-worst team defending the arc. Toronto is a surprisingly third in the NBA in threes made. Trent, acquired at the trade deadline, leads the team in threes attempted, with nearly eight a game. It doesn’t hurt that he’s red-hot of late, leading the team in scoring in back-to-back games.
Los Angeles Clippers -9 at Detroit Pistons
*EDIT: Paul George is out tonight, moving this line to -3. Without Kawhi either, stay away from this game.
Even if Kawhi doesn’t play, these two teams are on drastically different levels. The Clippers are one of just four teams ranked inside the top-ten for both offense and defense. Detroit has the unfortunate honor of the inverse, bottom-ten in both categories.
Player prop: Paul George OVER
*EDIT: Read above
We’re going back to the Paul George well for the second night in a row. The Clippers are fifth in threes made and the Pistons are 24th defending the deep bomb. No one shoots more threes than George on this Clippers team.
Indiana Pacers -5 at Houston Rockets
This is a similar recipe to the Clippers pick. Indiana is aggressively average, ranked 15th on both ends of the floor. Houston comes in 26th on offense and 25th on defense. The Pacers are just better.
Indiana’s strength (scoring in the paint) also aligns with Houston’s defensive vulnerability. The Pacers are fourth in points in the paint, the Rockets are 20th defending the interior.
Prop: Sabonis over
Reason highlighted above.
The Milwaukee Bucks would be a target against this poor Timberwolves defense, but the absence of Giannis is keeping that off the board for tonight.
That will do it for Wednesday picks. As always, rankings can be found below for your own use.
The Rankings: NBA Best Bets
For the sake of showing my work and being a resource to you all, the rankings for the week are below. Beyond offensive and defensive rankings, we’ve got pace of play rankings and teams rankings on threes and points in the paint (on both sides of the ball).
Shoutout to TeamRankings.com for their treasure trove of statistics.
Rankings are created by averaging out the following:
- Points per game
- Effective field goal percentage
- Efficiency (off/def)
Pace is calculated by:
- Field goals attempted per game
- Possessions per game
|Offensive Ranking||Defensive Ranking|
Offensive Preferences vs. Defensive Weaknesses
|Offense: Points in Paint||Defense: Opponent’s Points in Paint (worst to best)|
|Offense: Three-Pointers Made||Defense: Opponent Three Point % (worst to best)|
Yesterday’s piece: NBA Best Bets: Tuesday 4/13