We had a hell of a Tuesday, going 8-1. Let’s keep the momentum going with our NBA best bets for Wednesday night.

As a reminder, you can find offensive and defensive rankings at the bottom of this piece, along with pace of play.

We expanded to player props last week, looking at offensive preferences (threes or points in the paint). The goal is to find overlaps with a strong team in one category going against a team that struggles to stop that type of offense. Those rankings are also at the bottom.

This week: 12-7 (+4.5 units)

NBA Season: 55-39 (+19.5u)

Follow me on Twitter: @griffybets

Let’s get to Wednesday’s picks.

NBA Best Bets: Wednesday April 14

Washington Wizards: The addition of Russell Westbrook isn't looking good

Washington Wizards-Sacramento Kings OVER 236.5 points

Just your classic “bet on awful defenses” pick from me here. The Wizards defense comes in ranked 26th and the Kings D is dead last.

Further aiding our cause is the Kings top-ten offense and that both of these teams are in the top-ten of pace. This should be a sloppy, up-tempo game with plenty of points.

In fact, I won’t just be betting the points here, there is reason to believe big games are in store for a few props as well.

Player props: Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook OVER

Beal and Westbrook both prefer to do their scoring close to the rim, explaining why the Wizards rank inside the top-ten of scoring in the paint. No team is more susceptible to inside scoring than Sacramento, perfect for these two players.

Sacramento Kings: Where does Buddy Hield rank among the league's top shooters?

Player props: De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield OVER

The Hield bet is contingent on him playing, of course – he missed Monday’s game. If he does suit up, he’s shooting over ten threes per game and now gets himself a Wizards defense incapable of defending the perimeter. He’s my preferred pick if you had to choose just one.

Fox is coming off a monster game Monday night, dropping 43 points. In a game absent of defense, you can’t go wrong targeting the Kings leading scorer.

Player props: Devonte Graham and Terry Rozier OVERs against Cleveland Cavaliers

I’ll keep this one brief. The Hornets rank seventh in threes made, the Cavs rank 27th in stopping the three. Both Graham and Rozier are shooting over eight threes a game. Alternatively, you can bet on their over threes instead of points, but both seem poised for big games.

The Norm Powell trade puts new Raptor Gary Trent Jr. in a comfortable spot — with an assist from destiny | The Star

Player prop: Gary Trent OVER against San Antonio Spurs

*EDIT: Gary Trent is OUT tonight – this play is off

Exact same logic as above. The Spurs struggle to stop the three, the sixth-worst team defending the arc. Toronto is a surprisingly third in the NBA in threes made. Trent, acquired at the trade deadline, leads the team in threes attempted, with nearly eight a game. It doesn’t hurt that he’s red-hot of late, leading the team in scoring in back-to-back games.

Los Angeles Clippers -9 at Detroit Pistons

*EDIT: Paul George is out tonight, moving this line to -3. Without Kawhi either, stay away from this game.

Even if Kawhi doesn’t play, these two teams are on drastically different levels. The Clippers are one of just four teams ranked inside the top-ten for both offense and defense. Detroit has the unfortunate honor of the inverse, bottom-ten in both categories.

Player prop: Paul George OVER 

*EDIT: Read above

We’re going back to the Paul George well for the second night in a row. The Clippers are fifth in threes made and the Pistons are 24th defending the deep bomb. No one shoots more threes than George on this Clippers team.

Domantas Sabonis triple double: Pacers forward creating for teammates

Indiana Pacers -5 at Houston Rockets

This is a similar recipe to the Clippers pick. Indiana is aggressively average, ranked 15th on both ends of the floor. Houston comes in 26th on offense and 25th on defense. The Pacers are just better.

Indiana’s strength (scoring in the paint) also aligns with Houston’s defensive vulnerability. The Pacers are fourth in points in the paint, the Rockets are 20th defending the interior.

Prop: Sabonis over

Reason highlighted above.

The Milwaukee Bucks would be a target against this poor Timberwolves defense, but the absence of Giannis is keeping that off the board for tonight.

That will do it for Wednesday picks. As always, rankings can be found below for your own use.

The Rankings: NBA Best Bets

For the sake of showing my work and being a resource to you all, the rankings for the week are below. Beyond offensive and defensive rankings, we’ve got pace of play rankings and teams rankings on threes and points in the paint (on both sides of the ball).

Shoutout to TeamRankings.com for their treasure trove of statistics.

Rankings are created by averaging out the following:

  • Points per game
  • Effective field goal percentage
  • Efficiency (off/def)

Pace is calculated by:

  • Field goals attempted per game
  • Possessions per game
Offensive RankingDefensive Ranking
  1. Brooklyn
  2. LA Clippers
  3. Milwaukee
  4. Utah
  5. Denver
  6. Phoenix
  7. New Orleans
  8. Sacramento
  9. Portland
  10. Atlanta
  11. Chicago
  12. Dallas
  13. Philadelphia
  14. Boston
  15. Indiana
  16. Memphis
  17. Golden State
  18. Toronto
  19. Charlotte
  20. LA Lakers
  21. Washington
  22. San Antonio
  23. Miami
  24. Detroit
  25. Minnesota
  26. Houston
  27. New York
  28. Okla City
  29. Orlando
  30. Cleveland
  1. LA Lakers (t-1)
  2. New York (t-1)
  3. Utah
  4. Philadelphia
  5. Phoenix
  6. Miami
  7. LA Clippers
  8. Dallas
  9. Boston
  10. Milwaukee
  11. Atlanta
  12. Golden State
  13. Toronto
  14. Memphis
  15. Indiana
  16. Denver
  17. San Antonio
  18. Charlotte
  19. Chicago
  20. Detroit
  21. Cleveland
  22. Brooklyn
  23. Okla City
  24. Orlando
  25. Houston
  26. Washington
  27. Portland
  28. Minnesota
  29. New Orleans
  30. Sacramento
Pace
  1. Milwaukee
  2. Minnesota
  3. Memphis
  4. Washington
  5. Indiana
  6. Golden State
  7. Chicago
  8. San Antonio
  9. Sacramento
  10. Houston
  11. Portland
  12. Orlando
  13. Toronto
  14. Brooklyn
  15. Philadelphia
  16. Utah
  17. New Orleans
  18. Boston
  19. Okla City
  20. Denver
  21. Charlotte
  22. LA Lakers
  23. Phoenix
  24. Atlanta
  25. Detroit
  26. Cleveland
  27. Dallas
  28. LA Clippers
  29. Miami
  30. New York

Offensive Preferences vs. Defensive Weaknesses

Offense: Points in PaintDefense: Opponent’s Points in Paint (worst to best)
  1. Memphis
  2. New Orleans
  3. Sacramento
  4. Indiana
  5. Cleveland
  6. Chicago
  7. LA Lakers
  8. Brooklyn
  9. Washington
  10. Denver
  11. Minnesota
  12. Milwaukee
  13. Philadelphia
  14. San Antonio
  15. Atlanta
  16. Boston
  17. Houston
  18. Detroit
  19. Okla City
  20. Golden State
  21. Phoenix
  22. Charlotte
  23. New York
  24. Miami
  25. Utah
  26. Dallas
  27. Toronto
  28. LA Clippers
  29. Orlando
  30. Portland
  1. Sacramento
  2. Indiana
  3. Minnesota
  4. Detroit
  5. Chicago
  6. Okla City
  7. Cleveland
  8. Utah
  9. San Antonio
  10. Houston
  11. Brooklyn
  12. Atlanta
  13. Portland
  14. LA Lakers
  15. LA Clippers
  16. Washington
  17. Charlotte
  18. Memphis
  19. Philadelphia
  20. Phoenix
  21. Golden State
  22. New Orleans
  23. Denver
  24. Orlando
  25. Boston
  26. Dallas
  27. New York
  28. Milwaukee
  29. Toronto
  30. Miami

 

Offense: Three-Pointers MadeDefense: Opponent Three Point % (worst to best)
  1. Utah
  2. Portland
  3. Toronto
  4. Milwaukee
  5. LA Clippers
  6. Brooklyn
  7. Charlotte
  8. Dallas
  9. Golden State
  10. Houston
  11. Boston
  12. Denver
  13. Phoenix
  14. Minnesota
  15. Atlanta
  16. Okla City
  17. Miami
  18. Chicago
  19. Indiana
  20. Detroit
  21. Sacramento
  22. Orlando
  23. New York
  24. LA Lakers
  25. New Orleans
  26. Memphis
  27. Philadelphia
  28. Washington
  29. San Antonio
  30. Cleveland
  1. New Orleans
  2. Sacramento
  3. Minnesota
  4. Cleveland
  5. Washington
  6. San Antonio
  7. Detroit
  8. Houston
  9. Toronto
  10. Indiana
  11. Milwaukee
  12. Orlando
  13. Portland
  14. Boston
  15. Golden State
  16. Memphis
  17. Brooklyn
  18. Charlotte
  19. LA Clippers
  20. Miami
  21. Dallas
  22. Philadelphia
  23. Denver
  24. Okla City
  25. Chicago
  26. Atlanta
  27. Phoenix
  28. LA Lakers
  29. Utah
  30. New York

 

Yesterday’s piece: NBA Best Bets: Tuesday 4/13

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Griffin’s working to find betting value where others may not. With a main focus on the NFL, consider Griffin your go-to resource for matchup breakdowns, including in the trenches and receivers vs. corners. Follow @griffybets on Twitter for more articles and videos. NBA breakdowns will be the primary focus during the NFL offseason.