Fresh off a winning night, let’s break it open tonight. Here are the NBA best bets for Wednesday night.

I’ve updated the rankings which guide these picks – all of which can be found at the bottom of the piece.

This week: 7-8 (even units)

NBA Season: 79-63 (+18.5u)

Follow me on Twitter: @griffybets

Let’s get to Wednesday’s picks.

NBA Best Bets: Wednesday April 21

Vucevic, Satoransky shine as Bulls bounce back against Nets | Eurohoops

Prop picks: Darius Garland, Collin Sexton and Nikola Vucevic OVER points

I thought this looked familiar – these teams played on Saturday. Garland and Vucevic both hit their overs in that game, and Sexton was just a point shy.

We’re going right back to it. Both of these offense rank inside the top-ten of inside scoring, while both defenses rank inside the bottom-ten defending shots in close. If it ain’t broke.

3 units: Golden State -2 at Washington Wizards

The only thing that explains this spread is that the Wizards have won five straight games. That stretch is explainable for any of my consistent readers – they’ve had prime matchups that allow their slashing style of play to thrive.

That’s not the case here against Golden State, owners of a top-ten defense overall and an above-average defense near the rim.

We haven’t even touched on Steph Curry. God damn – the run this man is on is unbelievable. He’s averaging over 40 points per game in April and has hit ten or more threes in four of five games.

His over threes is high, at 6.5. The Wizards are 24th in the NBA defending the three-point shot – Curry is primed for another big outing.

Instead of taking that high prop, let’s just stick with the Warriors. Golden State is better than Washington on both ends – they should win this and cover a reasonable 2-point spread. Putting three units on this one.

Steph Curry's 57 points not enough, more takeaways from Warriors' loss to Mavericks

Prop pick: Kyrie Irving over threes vs. Raptors

This is a back-to-back, so we’ll see if Irving suits up, but if he does – let’s run it back with his threes for another night. The Raptors are 25th defending the three and the Nets are sixth in threes made per game. Kyrie shoots 7 a game, so let’s ride with the lone star for Brooklyn.

Thoughts on Utah, and a Pick

There’s a lot to like about the Jazz against the Rockets tonight. In fact, there is everything to like. They have choice matchups on both ends of the ball, and should be able to shoot the three with ease against a Houston offense ranking 26th defending the perimeter.

The only downside is that Donovan Mitchell is out, the Jazz’s best player. So, what to do? The spread at 11.5 feels a bit rich without Utah’s best player.

I don’t just want to take Utah to cover, I want to take their team total over and the Rockets team total under. This is a perfect union of metrics for the Jazz.

I’m caving and taking the spread – but wanted to talk it out here. Someone is going to hit their threes in this game, and I’ll roll with Bogdanovic, shooting nearly seven a game.

  • Utah -11.5
  • Bojan Bogdanovic over 2.5 threes

Sacramento Kings season report card: De'Aaron Fox

Minnesota Timberwolves-Sacramento Kings OVER 239 points

Let’s go right back to the well with this over for the second night in a row. These teams played last night, combining for 254 points, what’s going to change?

These are the two worst defenses in the NBA and two of the fastest offenses in the league. Feel free to target this game for props and DFS plays. I picked Towns and Fox last night and despite the high point total, neither hit. I may double-down to try and break even, TBD.

Update: Taking Towns and Fox again

TEAM TOTAL UNDER picks

We have two team total unders to target tonight, which we’ll lump together here. The alliteration in that first sentence is just beautiful.

The reasonings for both are the same. Two bottom-ten offenses matched up on two top-ten defenses with teams that play at a slow pace.

  • Pistons UNDER vs. Mavericks
  • Spurs UNDER vs. Heat

Pacers in the paint would be a target tonight against the Thunder, but there’s too many injuries to get a good read on Indiana’s lineup.

The Rankings: NBA Best Bets

For the sake of showing my work and being a resource to you all, the rankings for the week are below. Beyond offensive and defensive rankings, we’ve got pace of play rankings and teams rankings on threes and points in the paint (on both sides of the ball).

Shoutout to TeamRankings.com for their treasure trove of statistics.

Rankings are created by averaging out the following:

  • Points per game
  • Effective field goal percentage
  • Efficiency (off/def)

Pace is calculated by:

  • Field goals attempted per game
  • Possessions per game
Offensive RankingDefensive Ranking
  1. Brooklyn
  2. LA Clippers
  3. Milwaukee
  4. Denver
  5. Utah
  6. Phoenix
  7. Sacramento
  8. New Orleans
  9. Portland
  10. Boston
  11. Atlanta
  12. Dallas
  13. Philadelphia
  14. Chicago
  15. Indiana
  16. Golden State
  17. Memphis
  18. Toronto
  19. Charlotte
  20. Washington
  21. LA Lakers
  22. San Antonio
  23. Miami
  24. Houston
  25. Detroit
  26. New York
  27. Minnesota
  28. Okla City
  29. Orlando
  30. Cleveland
  1. LA Lakers (t-1)
  2. New York (t-1)
  3. Utah
  4. Philadelphia
  5. Phoenix
  6. Miami
  7. LA Clippers
  8. Dallas
  9. Golden State
  10. Milwaukee
  11. Toronto
  12. Boston
  13. San Antonio
  14. Memphis
  15. Atlanta
  16. Denver
  17. Indiana
  18. Detroit
  19. Charlotte
  20. Cleveland
  21. Brooklyn
  22. Chicago
  23. Okla City
  24. Orlando
  25. Washington
  26. Houston
  27. Portland
  28. New Orleans
  29. Minnesota
  30. Sacramento
Pace
  1. Minnesota
  2. Milwaukee
  3. Washington
  4. Memphis
  5. Indiana
  6. Golden State
  7. Chicago
  8. San Antonio
  9. Houston
  10. Sacramento
  11. Portland
  12. New Orleans
  13. Brooklyn
  14. Utah
  15. Okla City
  16. Orlando
  17. Toronto
  18. Philadelphia
  19. Boston
  20. Denver
  21. Charlotte
  22. LA Lakers
  23. Phoenix
  24. Atlanta
  25. Detroit
  26. Dallas
  27. Cleveland
  28. LA Clippers
  29. New York
  30. Miami

Offensive Preferences vs. Defensive Weaknesses

Offense: Points in PaintDefense: Opponent’s Points in Paint (worst to best)
  1. Memphis
  2. New Orleans
  3. Sacramento
  4. Indiana
  5. Cleveland
  6. Chicago
  7. Washington
  8. LA Lakers
  9. Brooklyn
  10. Denver
  11. Minnesota
  12. Milwaukee
  13. San Antonio
  14. Philadelphia
  15. Atlanta
  16. Houston
  17. Boston
  18. Okla City
  19. Detroit
  20. Golden State
  21. Charlotte
  22. Phoenix
  23. New York
  24. Miami
  25. Utah
  26. Dallas
  27. Toronto
  28. LA Clippers
  29. Orlando
  30. Portland
  1. Sacramento
  2. Indiana
  3. Detroit
  4. Chicago
  5. Minnesota
  6. Utah
  7. Okla City
  8. Cleveland
  9. San Antonio
  10. Houston
  11. Atlanta
  12. Portland
  13. LA Lakers
  14. Brooklyn
  15. Washington
  16. LA Clippers
  17. Memphis
  18. Golden State
  19. Charlotte
  20. Philadelphia
  21. Phoenix
  22. New Orleans
  23. Orlando
  24. Denver
  25. Boston
  26. Dallas
  27. New York
  28. Milwaukee
  29. Toronto
  30. Miami

 

Offense: Three-Pointers MadeDefense: Opponent Three Point % (worst to best)
  1. Utah
  2. Portland
  3. Toronto
  4. Milwaukee
  5. LA Clippers
  6. Brooklyn
  7. Golden State
  8. Charlotte
  9. Dallas
  10. Houston
  11. Boston
  12. Phoenix
  13. Denver
  14. Minnesota
  15. Atlanta
  16. Miami
  17. Okla City
  18. Chicago
  19. Indiana
  20. Detroit
  21. Sacramento
  22. Orlando
  23. New York
  24. LA Lakers
  25. Memphis
  26. Philadelphia
  27. New Orleans
  28. San Antonio
  29. Washington
  30. Cleveland
  1. Minnesota
  2. New Orleans
  3. Sacramento
  4. Cleveland
  5. Houston
  6. Toronto
  7. Washington
  8. San Antonio
  9. Orlando
  10. Indiana
  11. Milwaukee
  12. Portland
  13. Boston
  14. Detroit
  15. Charlotte
  16. Brooklyn
  17. Dallas
  18. Golden State
  19. Miami
  20. Memphis
  21. Denver
  22. Philadelphia
  23. Okla City
  24. LA Clippers
  25. Chicago
  26. Phoenix
  27. Atlanta
  28. LA Lakers
  29. Utah
  30. New York

 

Yesterday’s piece: NBA Best Bets: Monday 4/19

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Griffin’s working to find betting value where others may not. With a main focus on the NFL, consider Griffin your go-to resource for matchup breakdowns, including in the trenches and receivers vs. corners. Follow @griffybets on Twitter for more articles and videos. NBA breakdowns will be the primary focus during the NFL offseason.