Fresh off a winning night, let’s break it open tonight. Here are the NBA best bets for Wednesday night.
I’ve updated the rankings which guide these picks – all of which can be found at the bottom of the piece.
This week: 7-8 (even units)
NBA Season: 79-63 (+18.5u)
Follow me on Twitter: @griffybets
Let’s get to Wednesday’s picks.
NBA Best Bets: Wednesday April 21
Prop picks: Darius Garland, Collin Sexton and Nikola Vucevic OVER points
I thought this looked familiar – these teams played on Saturday. Garland and Vucevic both hit their overs in that game, and Sexton was just a point shy.
We’re going right back to it. Both of these offense rank inside the top-ten of inside scoring, while both defenses rank inside the bottom-ten defending shots in close. If it ain’t broke.
3 units: Golden State -2 at Washington Wizards
The only thing that explains this spread is that the Wizards have won five straight games. That stretch is explainable for any of my consistent readers – they’ve had prime matchups that allow their slashing style of play to thrive.
That’s not the case here against Golden State, owners of a top-ten defense overall and an above-average defense near the rim.
We haven’t even touched on Steph Curry. God damn – the run this man is on is unbelievable. He’s averaging over 40 points per game in April and has hit ten or more threes in four of five games.
His over threes is high, at 6.5. The Wizards are 24th in the NBA defending the three-point shot – Curry is primed for another big outing.
Instead of taking that high prop, let’s just stick with the Warriors. Golden State is better than Washington on both ends – they should win this and cover a reasonable 2-point spread. Putting three units on this one.
Prop pick: Kyrie Irving over threes vs. Raptors
This is a back-to-back, so we’ll see if Irving suits up, but if he does – let’s run it back with his threes for another night. The Raptors are 25th defending the three and the Nets are sixth in threes made per game. Kyrie shoots 7 a game, so let’s ride with the lone star for Brooklyn.
Thoughts on Utah, and a Pick
There’s a lot to like about the Jazz against the Rockets tonight. In fact, there is everything to like. They have choice matchups on both ends of the ball, and should be able to shoot the three with ease against a Houston offense ranking 26th defending the perimeter.
The only downside is that Donovan Mitchell is out, the Jazz’s best player. So, what to do? The spread at 11.5 feels a bit rich without Utah’s best player.
I don’t just want to take Utah to cover, I want to take their team total over and the Rockets team total under. This is a perfect union of metrics for the Jazz.
I’m caving and taking the spread – but wanted to talk it out here. Someone is going to hit their threes in this game, and I’ll roll with Bogdanovic, shooting nearly seven a game.
- Utah -11.5
- Bojan Bogdanovic over 2.5 threes
Minnesota Timberwolves-Sacramento Kings OVER 239 points
Let’s go right back to the well with this over for the second night in a row. These teams played last night, combining for 254 points, what’s going to change?
These are the two worst defenses in the NBA and two of the fastest offenses in the league. Feel free to target this game for props and DFS plays. I picked Towns and Fox last night and despite the high point total, neither hit. I may double-down to try and break even, TBD.
Update: Taking Towns and Fox again
TEAM TOTAL UNDER picks
We have two team total unders to target tonight, which we’ll lump together here. The alliteration in that first sentence is just beautiful.
The reasonings for both are the same. Two bottom-ten offenses matched up on two top-ten defenses with teams that play at a slow pace.
- Pistons UNDER vs. Mavericks
- Spurs UNDER vs. Heat
Pacers in the paint would be a target tonight against the Thunder, but there’s too many injuries to get a good read on Indiana’s lineup.
The Rankings: NBA Best Bets
For the sake of showing my work and being a resource to you all, the rankings for the week are below. Beyond offensive and defensive rankings, we’ve got pace of play rankings and teams rankings on threes and points in the paint (on both sides of the ball).
Shoutout to TeamRankings.com for their treasure trove of statistics.
Rankings are created by averaging out the following:
- Points per game
- Effective field goal percentage
- Efficiency (off/def)
Pace is calculated by:
- Field goals attempted per game
- Possessions per game
|Offensive Ranking||Defensive Ranking|
Offensive Preferences vs. Defensive Weaknesses
|Offense: Points in Paint||Defense: Opponent’s Points in Paint (worst to best)|
|Offense: Three-Pointers Made||Defense: Opponent Three Point % (worst to best)|
Yesterday’s piece: NBA Best Bets: Monday 4/19