The NBA conference semis are underway, let’s keep up the momentum from Round 1. Next up: Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers.
If I may, a moment to respectfully reflect on the success we had here in Round 1. The numbers brought in for all eight series were validated throughout, and confidence is high for the continued success.
Take the series that the numbers said to bet the under in. One was the Knicks-Hawks series, the under went 4-0-1. One was the Lakers-Suns, that under went 4-1-1.
Then my favorite series of them all, the over for all Grizzlies-Jazz games. The numbers were screaming to take the over, so I made this my nightly two unit bet. The over went 5-0. 🙂
Yes, I’m patting myself on the back, but I’m also trying to say: these numbers are working!
So, let’s get to the numbers for this Bucks-Nets series. Use this as a resource. I’ve consolidated offensive and defensive ranks (equation at bottom of table), offensive and defensive preferences, and pace of play. I’ve also tacked on recent performance and betting trends.
These series previews will be all-encompassing. Logically, any advantage that would apply for one team should hold pat for the entire series.
Let’s get to it. Follow me on Twitter, @griffybets, for all things NBA this postseason. Drop me a line with any feedback or ideas for stats you’d like to see included!
|Atlanta Hawks||Philadelphia 76ers|
|Offense rank: 11|
Threes rank: 14
Pts in paint: 14
Defense rank: 10
Perimeter D: 4
Opp. pts in paint: 20
|Offense rank: 15|
Threes rank: 17
Pts in paint: 17
Defense rank: 4
Perimeter D: 9
Opp. pts in paint: 8
|Round 1 W/L||Round 1 W/L|
|Playoffs ATS||Playoffs ATS|
|Playoffs O/U||Playoffs O/U|
|Odds to win Series||Odds to win Series|
|Regular Season Head-to-Head|
Sixers won, 2-1
- Offensive/Defensive ranks calculated by averaging (points per game, EFG% and efficiency)
- Pace calculated by averaging (field goals attempted per game and possessions per game)
- Threes/Perimeter defense calculated by averaging (threes made per game and 3P%)
Shoutout to TeamRankings.com for the above stats. That site has everything you could ever ask for – this is just a taste of the numbers they consolidate for you. Consider perusing the site to dig into areas of the game you’re curious about.
Series Schedule: Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers
Game 1: Sunday 6/6, 1 PM EST
Game 2: TBD
Game 3: TBD
Game 4: TBD
Game 5: TBD
Game 6: TBD
Game 7: TBD
Thoughts on the Series: Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers
It’s kind of hard to start anywhere else besides with the Joel Embiid injury. It appears optimism is the most we’re getting out of Philly’s camp around his availability. ICYMI: Embiid has a slight tear in his meniscus that forced him to leave Game 4 against the Wizards early, and miss Game 5.
Embiid is an MVP finalist and the motor behind this team. An extended absence radically shifts the outlook of this series. I hate uncertainty, especially as it relates to betting on a winner for this series.
Hopefully things clear up one way or the other before the series tips off on Sunday.
Atlanta took it to the Knicks in five games, an impressive sign. On paper, the Hawks are one of the most balanced teams on both ends. Them scoring enough on New York’s top-ranked defense highlights the potential Trae Young and this Atlanta offense have to continue making noise in these playoffs.
Even with Embiid fully healthy, the above rankings do point a slight arrow towards Atlanta, wouldn’t you agree?
It’s so hard to accurately gauge how to bet on this series without Embiid, which feels like a cop out here, but it’s the truth.
I’m leaning Atlanta in this series. It’s the stronger value, and even with Embiid, Clint Capela is an ideal candidate to slow him down.
Stat Leaders for Each Team
If you want to include some Hawks/Sixers in your DFS lineups or prop picks, the below players are where I’d recommend starting.
Numbers for the playoffs only.
- Trae Young: 29.2 ppg, 9.8 apg, 22.2 FGApg
- Bogdan Bogdanovic: 8.4 3PApg
- Clint Capela: 10.0 ppg, 13.4 rpg, 2.2 bpg
- Tobias Harris: 25.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 50.5 FG%
- Joel Embiid: 24.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg
- Ben Simmons: 34.2 PRApg
Favorite Bets for the Series
The numbers do seem to favor betting the under in this series. Yes, Philly averaged 124 ppg against the Wizards, but that feels like a product of the Wizards poor defense and fast pace.
The Hawks are the inverse, with a strong defense and a slower pace of play. The Sixers also rank 19th in pace, so the lean here is bet the under.
The logic worked for both the Suns-Lakers and Hawks-Knicks series, so I’m headed back to the well for more.
Ben Simmons feels like he could be in for a monster series, especially if Embiid misses multiple games. Atlanta’s 20th-ranked inside defense is a prime opportunity for Simmons to feast. Consider targeting his nightly overs.
I’m rolling with the Hawks in this one. I may wait out Game 1 to see how these teams match up sans Embiid, but at +165, I like Atlanta here.
GriffyBets Nightly Targets: Ben Simmons overs, UNDER
Series winner: Atlanta
Stay tuned for more NBA betting previews throughout the week. We’ll be breaking down each series here on KnupSports.com. Please follow me on Twitter, @griffybets!