The play-in tournament is behind us and we’re on to the first round. We’ll be doing previews for every series. Here is the Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers betting preview.
Here’s what I’m thinking for the first round of the NBA playoffs. Below this blurb are all the ranks for each team that I will discuss. Use this as a resource. I’ve consolidated offensive and defensive ranks (equation at bottom of table), offensive and defensive preferences, and pace of play. I’ve also tacked on recent performance, key injuries, and betting trends.
The hope is that we find overlap between a team strength and another team weakness, or vice versa. This is nothing more than a guide. I’ll be making a few picks at the end, but I hope more than anything that this helps give you a look into how each team matches up.
These series previews will be all-encompassing. Logically, any advantage that would apply for one team should hold pat for the entire series.
Let’s get to it. Follow me on Twitter, @griffybets, for all things NBA this postseason. Drop me a line with any feedback or ideas for stats you’d like to see included!
|Dallas Mavericks||LA Clippers|
|Offense rank: 10
Threes rank: 13
Pts in paint: 24
Defense rank: 12
Perimeter D: 12
Opp. pts in paint: 7
|Offense rank: 5
Threes rank: 2
Pts in paint: 28
Defense rank: 5
Perimeter D: 7
Opp. pts in paint: 12
|Last 10 Games||Last 10 Games|
|ATS record||ATS record|
|O/U record||O/U record|
|Odds to win Series||Odds to win Series|
|Regular Season Head-to-Head|
Mavericks won, 2-1
- Offensive/Defensive ranks calculated by averaging (points per game, EFG% and efficiency)
- Pace calculated by averaging (field goals attempted per game and possessions per game)
- Threes/Perimeter defense calculated by averaging (threes made per game and 3P%)
Shoutout to TeamRankings.com for the above stats. That site has everything you could ever ask for – this is just a taste of the numbers they consolidate for you. Consider perusing the site to dig into areas of the game you’re curious about.
Series Schedule: Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers
Game 1: Saturday 5/22 at 4:30 PM EST
Game 2: 5/25
Game 3: 5/28
Game 4: 5/30
Game 5: 6/2
Game 6: 6/4
Game 7: 6/6
Thoughts on the Series: Dallas Mavericks vs LA Clippers
This should be a great series. Dallas is one of just a few teams to be ranked inside the top-12 on both offense and defense. Unfortunately for them, they’re matched up against one of just two teams to be ranked inside the top-5 in both categories.
The Clippers are the better team, with more firepower around them, and should be able to win this series.
Obviously, we’re not touching the -400 odds for the Clippers to win, there’s nothing to like about that. Still, I’m drawn to betting on this series. Since I’ve started crunching the numbers for these playoffs, I haven’t found two teams that match up like this.
My book has odds for this series reaching a 6th game at -135. I love that bet. LA should be able to win, but this is a pesky Mavericks team led by Luka, I like them taking two games at minimum.
Stat Leaders for Each Team
If you want to include some Mavericks/Clippers in your DFS lineups or prop picks, the below players are where I’d recommend starting.
- Luka Doncic: 44.3 PRApg, 8.3 3PApg
- Kristaps Porzingis: 20.1 ppg, 37.6% 3P%
- Kawhi Leonard: 24.8 ppg, 51.2% FG%
- Paul George: 23.3 ppg, 7.7 3PApg, 41.4% 3P%
- Marcus Morris Sr.: 47.7% 3P%
Favorite Bets for the Series
With two strong defenses and both teams near the bottom of pace of play, I’ll likely be taking a couple of unders throughout this series. Let’s wait and see where the total lines up, but anything around 225 and I’ll be taking the under.
Beyond that, my official prediction is that the Clippers advance, but I’m not going to take that -400 bet. Instead my series pick remains the one I mentioned above: over 5.5 games played at -130.
GriffyBets Nightly Targets: UNDER points
Series winner: LA Clippers, Series Bet: OVER 5.5 games
Stay tuned for more NBA betting previews throughout the week. We’ll be breaking down each series here on KnupSports.com.