• Josh Allen has quietly had an incredible season, he’s just shy of 2k yards, has 17 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He is currently the DraftKings odds on favorite to win MVP. 
  • The #1 overall draft pick cannot say the same, Trevor Lawrence currently has a TD/INT ratio of.88 and has a completion % of 59.6%.
  • The Jaguars are currently 1-6, and on a one-game losing streak while the Bills are 5-2 and on a one-game winning streak. 

You would be hard-pressed to find two NFL teams on more different trajectories. 

The Buffalo Bills are 5-2, looking dominant in their wins against the Chiefs, Texans, and Dolphins. Josh Allen is playing incredibly well, but the Buffalo defense deserves a lot of credit too: the team ranks first in turnovers with 18, and they rank top-5 in both passing and rushing yards against. 

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The Bills are without question on an upward trajectory, looking to win the AFC Championship after losing in the prior season to the Chiefs. The Jaguars on the other hand, well they had the first pick in the draft last season for a reason. 

Jacksonville is 1-6 this season, with their lone win coming against Miami in London. Trevor Lawrence is without question struggling, but he is not alone, the Jacksonville defense is a bottom-25 defense in the NFL. 

Bills vs Jaguars Matchup at a Glance

  • Sport: NFL
  • Teams: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Where: Jacksonville Florida at  TIAA Bank Field
  • Date: November 7th, 2021
  • Betting Odds: Buffalo -14.5 (-110) Total 48.5 (-110) ML Bills (-1125) Jaguars (+700)

 (at PointsBet | at Caesars | at DraftKings | at Fanduel | at BetRivers)

Bills Preview: The Buffalo Bullies

I am not joking when I call the Bills the Buffalo Bullies. On average, the Bills scored 32.7 points per game while only allowing 15.6, a PD of 17.1. Discard the Bills’ losses and the average points for jumps to 36.4 and they only allow 10.6 for a PD of 25.8. Yikes. 

I talked about it in the intro, but Josh Allen has led an excellent Bills offense this year. The Bills rank 10th in passing yards, and second in passing touchdowns.

The area where they really do damage however is the red zone, however. The Bills rank first in red-zone attempts and in red-zone touchdowns and rank tenth in red-zone TD%. 

The Bills’ defense, not to be outshone by the offense, is ranked sixth in red-zone attempts, third in red-zone touchdowns, and rank second in red zone attempts against.

In short, the Bills are going to rack up a lot of points in a hurry, and they are not going to let you score a whole lot. 

Jaguars Preview: The Joyless Jaguars

Maybe that title is not fair; the Jaguars do have one win, so I guess they have one joy. But besides that win, the Jags have not had a great season. In my personal opinion, Trevor Lawrence has underperformed (there is something to be said for the staff that surrounds him but I digress). 

Urban Meyer was involved in a scandal a while back and his leadership is being questioned with the organization. The Jaguars are currently projected to get the fourth pick in the draft. Not a fun season by any means. 

The team does not have a lot going for it offensively. They are ranked 19th offensively and are across the board a poorly ranked team. The one category where they excel in their red-zone touchdown%, where they rank twelfth (64.7%). They also rank only third in sacks against, a good thing when you have a young rookie QB. 

Much like the Bills, the Jaguars’ defense is equal to its offense (which is to say, horrible).  Lineups.com currently ranks them as the 26th defense in the NFL with their one upside being the fact that their rushing defense ranks eighth in yards against. 

Odds & Free Betting Analysis for This NFL Game

The two teams against the spread record (ATS) actually do a fairly good job of reflecting the two teams’ NFL records. ATS, the Bills are 4-2-1, going 2-1 on the road. The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS, and they are 1-3 at home. 

This would indicate to me that most betting sites have a good handle on where these two teams are at and that most of the spreads are going to wind up fairly accurately. So, with that in mind, I am going to take the Bills to beat the spread.

The difference between these two teams is just so vast. The Bills are challenging for a Superbowl and are arguably the best team in the AFC. The Jaguars are genuinely lucky that they have a win. The Bills -14.5 feels accurate. 

The total is a little harder to predict based on win-loss records. 

The Bills are 3-4 on their games hitting the over, and 2-1 on the road. I think this is largely based on the fact that Buffalo just blows teams out and shuts them down so it is hard for them to hit the total. 

The Jags are 2-5 in their games hitting the over, 1-3 at home. And considering they are going to play a lights-out defense in the Bills, odds are pretty good that they are not going to score a lot, which I think will add a loss in their record against the total. 

Bills vs Jaguars Pick

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