We’ve got an extra day of Week 13, with Tuesday Night Football courtesy of the Ravens covid-19 outbreak the last two weeks.
It will be Baltimore hosting Dallas. So, let’s break it all down. We’ll take a look at the teams, props to consider, a pick against total points and overall thoughts of the game. I’ll be using grading from PFF for much of my analysis, with a sprinkle of Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency rankings.
Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview
8:05 PM EST, FOX
Line: Ravens -8.5
Dallas (3-8) overall, (2-9) ATS
Dallas is well-rested, having not played in 12 days. Their Thanksgiving game was a blowout, losing to Washington 41-16. The Cowboys have won just once since October 11.
Rankings-wise, there isn’t much going in Dallas’ favor. The announcement that All-Pro guard Zack Martin is done for the year is a significant blow to the only average unit on this team.
Dallas’ achilles heel has been their rushing defense, followed closely by their passing defense. In simpler terms, their defense is awful.
PFF’s Rush Defense Ranking: 27th
DVOA Rush Defense Efficiency: 29th
PFF’s Coverage Ranking: 28th
DVOA Pass Defense Efficiency: 21st
It’s here that we need to find value in some player props, as the clearly inferior unit in this Tuesday night game.
Baltimore (6-5) overall, (5-6) ATS
Baltimore’s lineup was ravaged by covid-19 positive cases last week, leading to a 19-14 loss on Wednesday to Pittsburgh.
Most of the team has since been activated from the covid-list, which should get the Ravens back on track. On offense: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Willie Snead and both centers are back. The defense has a multitude of big names returning as well: Calais Campbell, Matthew Judon, and Pernell McPhee.
The defense has been the stronger unit for Baltimore this year, ranked in the top-ten of DVOA efficiency rankings.
The offense has come down to earth after Lamar’s MVP campaign last year. Their rushing offense is at least above-average, ranked 11th in DVOA. PFF slightly disagrees, putting them closer to 20th.
We broke down the Dallas defense above, and despite lackluster production from Baltimore this year, this is where we can find value, so let’s dive in.
Player Props to Target
- JK Dobbins OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-115)
I’ll preface this by saying that the Ravens backfield has been tough to figure out from a prop perspective. They spread the wealth between Dobbins, Ingram, Gus Edwards and don’t forget Lamar.
Disregarding the mess of a game last week entirely, Dobbins seems to be trending in the right direction, playing on average nearly 60% of the snaps in his last four. Important to note that Ingram did miss a few games in this stretch, but Dobbins was showing true explosiveness, racking up 255 yards on 53 carries (4.8/carry).
Someone on the Ravens is going to have a big game on the ground, so take a look at all the overs and go with your gut. This is a roll of the dice prop bet for me. As such, I’m placing just .5 units on the outcome.
- Lamar Jackson OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+130)
Scroll back up to remember just how poor this Cowboys defense is. There is no doubt the Ravens have been disappointing offensively, but they can’t match the Cowboys ineptitude. This is the get-right opportunity Baltimore needs.
Instead of taking a receiver in this game, I’m rolling with Jackson’s touchdown over. Lamar has thrown for two or more touchdowns in half of his games this year, and this is a choice matchup to target.
The Cowboys have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in eight games this year.
I’m looking at Dallas under 17.5 points.
The Cowboys offense has struggled all year. They are a bottom-ten passing and rushing team according to PFF, going against a strong Ravens defense.
I like Baltimore, in a must-win game, returning much of their roster, to bring the juice and shut Dallas down.
The spread is big, especially considering how Dallas has had six more days of rest. The Ravens’ offense leaves a lot to be desired, but if there was ever a chance for them to get rolling, it would be against this secondary.
I’m never going to force a pick. There is no template for these previews. I’m not taking the spread here, but I hope I presented enough information for you to make a decision, if you want to.
That will do it, see y’all for Thursday night’s preview, and as always, toss me a follow on Twitter and let’s get hot, together.