Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday night at 8:20 PM ET in an intriguing matchup with the Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars. In Dolphins at Jaguars betting, Jacksonville is a three-point home favorite, with an over/under set at 48 points.

Miami very nearly upset the Buffalo Bills in Week 2, carrying a lead into the fourth quarter and eventually trailing by only three points with just over two minutes to go. Ultimately, the loss moved the Dolphins to an 0-2 record to begin the campaign.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville trailed Tennessee 24-10 at the half in week two. A resilient second-half effort saw the Jaguars tie the game 30-30 with 5:02 remaining, but a Stephen Gostkowski field goal and Gardner Minshew interception closed the door on the Jags’ comeback. The loss moved the Jaguars to 1-1 on the season.

Tua Time?

The Dolphins selected Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, a former Heisman finalist, with the fifth overall pick in the 2020 Draft. Tagovailoa was expected to be the top overall pick in the draft before a hip injury ended his college season early. Concerns about lingering effects from the injury affected his draft stock but Tagovailoa is supposedly healthy heading into week 2.

Fellow first-round quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert have looked very impressive to begin their careers. Dolphins fans are likely wondering when head coach Brian Flores will hand Tagovailoa the keys to the offense.  However, given the difficult defenses the Dolphins will face the next three weeks (Seattle in Week 4, at San Francisco in Week 5, and at Denver in Week 6), there’s a chance Flores plays it safe and continues to allow Tagovailoa to grow in practices rather than throw him to the wolves before he’s ready.

Jekyll and Hyde

To Ryan Fitzpatrick’s credit, he put together a strong performance against Buffalo after a downright ugly opening game against New England. Fitzpatrick threw for 191 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions in Week 1, but responded with 328 yards and two touchdowns (no interceptions) in Week 2.

Tight end Mike Gesicki was limited to three catches for 30 yards against New England, but broke out against Buffalo for eight catches, 130 yards and a touchdown. Jordan Howard has both of the Dolphins’ rushing touchdowns, but is averaging less than one yard per carry due to his limited role. Without knowing which Miami offense will show up on game day and a defense that has allowed the third-most yards in the league, there’s not much to inspire confidence in betting on Miami.

Minshew Mania Alive and Well

After an upset of the Colts in Week 1 and a narrow loss to Tennessee in Week 2, the Jaguars are one of the early surprises of the season. After trading star defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue to the Vikings and releasing 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette, many (myself included) wrote off the Jaguars and expected them to finish near the bottom of the standings. Jacksonville has been pleasantly competitive so far and if they stay healthy, expect that trend to continue.

Gardner Minshew is one of the biggest reasons for the Jaguars’ early success. Yes, it’s Week 3, but Minshew is in the Top 10 in the league in quarterback rating, Top 5 in completion percentage, and tied for second with six touchdowns.

Seven different Jacksonville receivers had at least 20 receiving yards against Tennessee, and the Jaguars still rushed for 165 yards. Minshew’s utilization of all facets of the offense is a promising sign for the second-year signal-caller.

Dolphins at Jaguars Betting — The Pick Is In

Led by another strong outing from Minshew, the Jaguars will win and cover the three-point spread on Thursday night. While Jacksonville’s offense looks poised and dangerous, Miami’s offensive inconsistencies make it tough to bet on the over.

In Dolphins at Jaguars betting, take the three-point favorite Jaguars at home, and under 48 points.