Fantasy regression is rarely an easy thing to predict, but given the circumstances that some players are in, it gives us a better idea of who is possibly in line to take a step back. With that in mind, here are four regression candidates for the 2022 fantasy football season.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Even though Aaron Rodgers is channeling his inner Cameron Poe, it’s hard not to be somewhat apprehensive about Rodgers’ 2022 outlook. Rodgers lost his No.1 target Davante Adams after being traded to the Las Vegas Raiders and the remaining wide receivers in Green Bay still have question marks.
Allen Lazard figures to be the Packers top receiver, but it remains to be seen how he takes on the new role. Since coming into the league, Sammy Watkins has dealt with injuries and consistency issues, so it could be hard for Rodgers to rely on him. Green Bay drafted North Dakota State wide receiver Christian Watson with the 34th overall pick in this year’s draft with the hopes that he could be their next star receiver, however, it usually takes time for recievers to gain Rodgers’ trust.
On top of all that, Rodgers has the best backfield he’s ever had in his career, so the Packers may rely on the ground game more than usual. Rodgers has a chance to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2022, it just doesn’t look that his ceiling will be as high.
Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Hunter Renfrow was one of the biggest waiver wire pickups of the year and helped out a lot of fantasy teams in the playoffs last season. He finished as WR11 in PPR and was about as consistent as you could ask for. However, with the acquisition of Adams in the off-season, Renfrow’s target share looks to be on the decline.
With Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and Adams already having a rapport from their time at Fresno State and Adams being one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Carr has a new No. 1 target. Tight end Darren Waller missed a handful of games last season which was another reason Renfrow was able to have the season he did. When Waller was healthy, he was Carr’s top target, so permitting any injuries, Waller will most likely be Carr’s second option.
Renfrow still has an opportunity to be a good flex option, but it will be hard for him to be as consistent as he was last season. There is a world where Adams and Waller take more attention off of Renfrow, which would then prompt him to get easier opportunities. Overall, this will be one situation to monitor to see how the pecking order develops over the course of the season.
Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots
Going into last season, Damien Harris was a fantasy sleeper and then he proved to be one of the most important players come fantasy playoff time. He finished the season as RB14, with a bulk of his points coming off touchdowns. He finished the year with 15 touchdowns and there’s reason to believe their will be regression next season,
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson figures to get a bigger workload next season after impressing at times last season. He provides more pass-catching upside than Harris, which could be significant if the Patriots plan on giving quarterback Mac Jones all the keys to the offense.
The Patriots also drafted two running backs in this year’s draft, so it’ll be interesting to see how they deploy their running back room. Harris does almost all of his work on the ground, and if his touchdowns regress, it’ll be hard to rely on him as a RB2 in fantasy.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB/WR, Atlanta Falcons
Last season, Cordarrelle Patterson had by far his best fantasy campaign ever at 30 years young, finishing as RB9. He was one of the best waiver wire pickups of the year and there’s a good chance he helped a lot of people get to their fantasy championship. However, next season may not be as promising for the Swiss Army knife.
The Atlanta Falcons made an addition to their backfield this season by drafting Tyler Allgeier out of Brigham Young University. Physically, he’s the type of running back head coach Arthur Smith wants in his offense. Allgeier could be in line for the bulk of the backfield duties as the season progresses due to the uncertainty revolving around the Falcons’ running back situation.
The Falcons are limiting the physical stress that they are putting on Patterson in training camp because he had the biggest workload he had ever received last season. In season, Patterson could also see a dip in carries due to last season’s workload which put more miles on his body than what he is accustomed to. Patterson will still be a mainstay in the Falcons offense, it just doesn’t look like he’ll put up the type of production that we saw last year.