Bears vs. Jaguars: Week 16 Game Analysis

 

Game: Chicago Bears (7-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)

Location: TIAA Bank Field

Time: Sunday, Dec. 27 at 1:00 p.m. ET

Television: CBS

 

Betting Lines

TeamPoint SpreadMoneylineOver/UnderTeam Total
Bears-7½ -35047 27 
Jaguars+7½ +2904720 

 

Head-to-Head

This intra-conference battle between the Bears and the Jaguars will be the first meeting between the two franchises since 2016.

Jacksonville, at 1-13, has taken control of the first pick in the draft. The prize is Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Meanwhile, the Bears are in the hunt for the final NFC wild card spot.

Both teams have something on the line despite the varying records, and Chicago has opened as a 7½ -point favorite.

Chicago Bears

Betting Record

TeamRecordATSATS HomeATS AwayATS FaveATS
Dog
O/U
Bears7-77-73-44-30-27-56-8

 

Next game: vs. Green Bay Packers

Last Game 

Chicago is coming off a massive divisional win against the Minnesota Vikings, moving to 7-7 and a game back of Arizona for the seventh and final wild card spot.

The 33-27 win over the Vikings was the Bears second straight victory, with running back David Montgomery once again the catalyst for a strong offensive day, finishing with 146 yards.

Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 15 of 21 passes for 202 yards, a touchdown and an interception, another solid outing for the beleaguered starter.

Allen Robinson was Trubisky’s go-to target, hauling in four balls for 83 yards.

Stats Pack

The defense did not have their best outing, letting both Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson surpass the century-mark in yards. They did intercept Kirk Cousins once and sack him thrice, and the unit remains overall strong, ranked fifth in the NFL, according to PFF.

Trends

Montgomery took 32 carries for 146 yards and two touchdowns in Week 15 and now has 434 yards in his last four.

Jacksonville is one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Montgomery has a choice matchup if looking for a Bear to target for a player prop or in daily fantasy.

Injury Report

Cordarelle Patterson, Kick returner/WR, Questionable

Buster Skrine, CB, Questionable

Jaylon Johnson, CB, Questionable

Deon Bush, S, Questionable

Jacksonville Jaguars

Betting Record

TeamRecordATSATS HomeATS AwayATS FaveATS
Dog
O/U
Jaguars1-136-83-43-40-16-77-6-1

Next game: at Indianapolis Colts

Last Game 

Jacksonville was blown out by Baltimore in Week 15, 40-14, their 13th straight loss.

The Jaguars defense has been one of the worst in the NFL all year and the trend continued against the Ravens, allowing 409 total yards of offense.

The Ravens went up big, 26-0 at halftime, flipping the game script and coasting to an easy win.

Gardner Minshew got the start at quarterback for the second week in a row, throwing for 226 yards and a pair of scores.

Running back James Robinson and wide receiver Chris Conley caught the touchdowns, with receiver DJ Chark leading the team in both yards (53).

Robinson struggled to get going on the ground, rushing 16 times for 35 yards, before leaving early with an ankle injury.

Stats Pack

The Jaguars defense has been the most generous to opposing offenses this year, surrendering an average of 418.2 yards per game 30.2 points per game. The yards are the most allowed in the NFL, and points aren’t far behind, third most in the league.

Trends

Rookie offensive weapon Laviska Shenault led the team in catches against Baltimore, with five. Shenault caught six balls in Week 14, and leads the team in targets the last two weeks.

The Bears defense is most susceptible to plays through the air, so keep an eye on Shenault in this one.

Injury Report

James Robinson, RB, Questionable

Logan Cooke, P, Out

Sidney Jones, CB, Questionable

CJ Henderson, CB, Out

Betting on the Game

Point Spread: Bears -7½  

Chicago has scored over 30 three straight weeks, and now gets a porous Jacksonville defense. For an offense that has looked anemic for much of the year, Trubisky is sparking something with the team.

I would expect the points to continue against Jacksonville, and with the Jaguars struggling offense against a strong Bears front-seven, this should be an easy cover for Chicago bettors.

Moneyline: Bears -350

Both teams are hoping for the same result in this game. The Bears would like to keep pace in the NFC wild card race, and Jacksonville has their eyes on Lawrence. It’s an easy pick, Chicago should win.

Over/Under: Under 47 

This one’s close, but the numbers suggest a low-scoring affair. With the surging Bears offense we mentioned, I could foresee a final score of Chicago: 28, Jacksonville: 14.

 

 

 

+ posts

Griffin’s working to find betting value where others may not. With a main focus on the NFL, consider Griffin your go-to resource for matchup breakdowns, including in the trenches and receivers vs. corners. Follow @griffybets on Twitter for more articles and videos. NBA breakdowns will be the primary focus during the NFL offseason.