Moving forward, I want to be a resource for you all. A one-stop shop of what you need to know for each and every game. I may offer some picks at the end, but my main objective is to consolidate the data I think matters for each game in an engaging way to help give you the information you need when placing your bets. 

The factors I’ve brought in:

  1. Offensive/Defensive DVOA rankings from Football Outsiders
    1. For those who don’t know, DVOA is a measure of team’s efficiency. It takes stats a level deeper than just the NFL rankings for most yards or points, which can be skewed by gameflow. A description of the metric can be found here.
  2. PFF’s Grade for Pass Blocking and PFF’s Grade for Pass Rush
    1. Games start in the trenches, and a disruptive defensive line can change an entire game. Important to compare these matchups
  3. Overlap: where strengths/weaknesses align in each matchup

This is a trial run for this column. Did I miss something that you value when looking at the board? Disagree with the importance of any of the above? Love everything about me? Any and all feedback and discussion is welcomed over on Twitter. Follow me @griffybets

Week 11 Games

I’ve compiled these breakdowns for every single Week 11 game. The away team is on the left, the home team is on the right. This is an experiment and I value any feedback on its helpfulness. Let’s go.

Cardinals at Seahawks

 

Line: Seahawks -3

Cardinals (6-3) overall, (5-4) ATSSeahawks (6-3) overall, (5-4) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank13Pass Offense DVOA Rank4
Rush Offense DVOA Rank4Rush Offense DVOA Rank9
Pass Defense DVOA Rank13Pass Defense DVOA Rank26
Rush Defense DVOA Rank11Rush Defense DVOA Rank9

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

The Cardinals should be able to exploit Seattle through the air early and often. Most teams have, but Arizona has the weapons to replicate their 37-point output against this team four weeks ago.Seattle should also have success through the air. Expect a high-scoring affair. The over is the highest of the week, at 57. Load up on player props for both of these teams passing games.

 

Trench Talk

Cardinals

Seahawks

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking3PFF’s Pass Block Ranking15
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking27PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking29

Advantage

Kyler should have plenty of time to pick apart this Seattle team struggling to get to the passer. The disparity between Arizona’s pass blocking and Seattle’s pass rushing is enough to consider taking Arizona at +3.

 

Titans at Ravens

 

Line: Ravens -6.5

Titans (6-3) overall, (3-6) ATSRavens (6-3) overall, (4-5) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank2Pass Offense DVOA Rank22
Rush Offense DVOA Rank5Rush Offense DVOA Rank11
Pass Defense DVOA Rank25Pass Defense DVOA Rank10
Rush Defense DVOA Rank19Rush Defense DVOA Rank3

Matchup analysis

This is a strength on strength matchup. Tennessee has a strong offense, but may not be able to capitalize going against a stingy Ravens defense.

Lamar Jackson hasn’t been his MVP self, this game offers a get-right opportunity – do you trust him?

 

Trench Talk

Titans

Ravens

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking29PFF’s Pass Block Ranking5
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking21PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking25

Advantage

The Ravens should fare well against a non-threatening Titans defensive line. If Lamar can get some time to throw, maybe he can take opportunities down the field against a vulnerable Tennessee secondary.

 

Lions at Panthers

 

Line: Panthers -1.5

Lions (4-5) overall, (4-5) ATSPanthers (3-7) overall, (5-5) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank16Pass Offense DVOA Rank10
Rush Offense DVOA Rank16Rush Offense DVOA Rank8
Pass Defense DVOA Rank23Pass Defense DVOA Rank24
Rush Defense DVOA Rank27Rush Defense DVOA Rank25

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

Not quite as strong offensively as Carolina, but the Lions should be able to score against an equally weak defense.

Keep an eye on injury news for Stafford and Golladay. This line will likely shift if they are ruled out.

The Panthers should have opportunities to move the ball against a weak Detroit defense. Carolina’s offensive numbers were one of the bigger surprises to see. I’ll be looking to take the over when this game posts

 

Trench Talk

Lions

Panthers

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking9PFF’s Pass Block Ranking16
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking22PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking7

Advantage

I’d say these units cancel each other out, not much to see here.

 

Steelers at Jaguars

 

Line: Steelers -10

Steelers (9-0) overall, (7-2) ATSJaguars (1-8) overall, (4-5) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank15Pass Offense DVOA Rank23
Rush Offense DVOA Rank29Rush Offense DVOA Rank23
Pass Defense DVOA Rank2Pass Defense DVOA Rank31
Rush Defense DVOA Rank6Rush Defense DVOA Rank20

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

The Steelers should be able to shut Jacksonville down offensively.

When Pittsburgh has the ball, expect to see the passing game take advantage of a weak Jacksonville secondary. Take Steelers WRs props.

N/A

 

Trench Talk

Steelers

Jaguars

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking6PFF’s Pass Block Ranking20
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking2PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking23

Advantage

A clear advantage across the board for Pittsburgh, which isn’t revolutionary considering one team is undefeated, and one team has lost eight straight games.

The spread is high. The Steelers failed to cover their last double-digit spread and Jacksonville covered a double-digit underdog spread just last week. Will history repeat itself?

 

Patriots at Texans

 

Line: Patriots -2

Patriots (4-5) overall, (4-5) ATSTexans (2-7) overall, (2-7) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank25Pass Offense DVOA Rank11
Rush Offense DVOA Rank2Rush Offense DVOA Rank32
Pass Defense DVOA Rank30Pass Defense DVOA Rank22
Rush Defense DVOA Rank31Rush Defense DVOA Rank32

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

Will the Patriots finally commit to one running back? Damien Harris looked great on Sunday, and I want all the Harris props I can get. As good as a DVOA advantage as we’re going to get in this rush offense going against Houston’s rush defense. I like Patriots -2 because of this.The passing game should have opportunities against this very weak secondary. Keep your eye on the availability of Pats corner Stephon Gilmore, who has missed the last three games. His presence makes the 30th rank moot.

 

Trench Talk

Patriots

Texans

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking13PFF’s Pass Block Ranking7
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking24PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking28

Advantage

The Texans double-down on their passing game advantage with these rankings. If Gilmore does not play, Watson, Fuller and Cooks should have big days.

 

Eagles at Browns

 

Line: Browns -3.5

Eagles (3-5-1) overall, (3-6) ATSBrowns (6-3) overall, (3-6) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank30Pass Offense DVOA Rank19
Rush Offense DVOA Rank15Rush Offense DVOA Rank7
Pass Defense DVOA Rank21Pass Defense DVOA Rank20
Rush Defense DVOA Rank13Rush Defense DVOA Rank18

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

N/A

This rushing attack is coming off 100+ yard games for both Chubb and Hunt. The Eagles just let the Giants run all over them and could be in for a similar game this weekend.

 

Trench Talk

Eagles

Browns

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking21PFF’s Pass Block Ranking1
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking1PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking16

Advantage

Wow – two top units going at it this weekend should be interesting to watch, but cancels out any advantages.

 

Falcons at Saints

 

Line: Saints -5

Falcons (3-6) overall, (4-5) ATSSaints (7-2) overall, (4-5) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank12Pass Offense DVOA Rank8
Rush Offense DVOA Rank30Rush Offense DVOA Rank6
Pass Defense DVOA Rank28Pass Defense DVOA Rank6
Rush Defense DVOA Rank7Rush Defense DVOA Rank1

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

N/A

Keep in mind that Drew Brees is out. I don’t think his absence will matter, as he’s looked a bit cooked this year. This is a strong Saints team in every facet. Even without Brees, I like them to cover the -5 with rankings like this.

 

Trench Talk

Falcons

Saints

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking25PFF’s Pass Block Ranking17
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking11PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking7

Advantage

The Saints should be able to harass Matt Ryan all day.

 

Bengals at Washington

 

Line: Washington -1.5

Bengals (2-6-1) overall, (6-3) ATSWFT (2-7) overall, (4-5) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank24Pass Offense DVOA Rank31
Rush Offense DVOA Rank24Rush Offense DVOA Rank20
Pass Defense DVOA Rank29Pass Defense DVOA Rank5
Rush Defense DVOA Rank21Rush Defense DVOA Rank14

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

N/A

A surprising fifth ranked defensive passing team will have chances against the rookie Burrow. 

 

Trench Talk

Bengals

Washington

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking

26

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking12
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking32PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking10

Advantage

Washington with clearly better lines on both sides. Has me leaning towards the home team to cover the small 1.5-point spread.

 

Dolphins at Broncos

 

Line: Dolphins -3.5

Dolphins (6-3) overall, (7-2) ATSBroncos (3-6) overall, (5-4) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank14Pass Offense DVOA Rank32
Rush Offense DVOA Rank27Rush Offense DVOA Rank26
Pass Defense DVOA Rank8Pass Defense DVOA Rank12
Rush Defense DVOA Rank29Rush Defense DVOA Rank17

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

Drew Lock should struggle getting anything going through the air against this Dolphins team.

Without a passing game, the Dolphins should be in a good position to win their sixth straight.

The Broncos should have some success shutting down the Dolphins run game. My only takeaway from that is to avoid Dolphins props on Sunday.

 

Trench Talk

Dolphins

Broncos

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking24PFF’s Pass Block Ranking28
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking15PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking13

Advantage

Both pass rush units seem to have opportunities to get to the opposing quarterback. With Denver already the worst ranked passing offense, this doesn’t help their chances of remedying that.

 

Jets at Chargers

 

Line: Chargers -8.5

Jets (0-9) overall, (2-7) ATSChargers (2-7) overall, (5-4) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank29Pass Offense DVOA Rank5
Rush Offense DVOA Rank28Rush Offense DVOA Rank25
Pass Defense DVOA Rank32Pass Defense DVOA Rank15
Rush Defense DVOA Rank10Rush Defense DVOA Rank24

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

The Jets on paper should be able to shut down the Chargers running game, so I’ll steer clear of the LA RBs. With the way they shuffle them in and out, that’s a good practice to get into anyway.Justin Herbert should have himself a day going against the last-ranked Jets pass defense. Will be wanting his and other Charger WR props on Sunday.

 

Trench Talk

Jets

Chargers

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking30PFF’s Pass Block Ranking23
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking20PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking7

Advantage

The Chargers have a clear advantage in getting to the passer in this one. That, coupled with the advantage on offense has me wanting the Chargers at -8.5.

 

Packers at Colts

 

Line: Colts -2

Packers (7-2) overall, (6-3) ATSColts (6-3) overall, (5-4) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank3Pass Offense DVOA Rank20
Rush Offense DVOA Rank13Rush Offense DVOA Rank18
Pass Defense DVOA Rank16Pass Defense DVOA Rank4
Rush Defense DVOA Rank22Rush Defense DVOA Rank4

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

N/A

This is a strong Colts defense getting one its biggest tests of the year in Aaron Rodgers. The Colts performed well against another strong DVOA offense in the Titans last week.

 

Trench Talk

Packers

Colts

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking2PFF’s Pass Block Ranking4
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking18PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking12

Advantage

Both offenses should have time to throw in this one, with two of the best pass blocking units in the NFL.

 

Cowboys at Vikings

 

Line: Vikings -7

Cowboys (2-7) overall, (1-8) ATS

Vikings (4-5) overall, (6-3) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank28Pass Offense DVOA Rank18
Rush Offense DVOA Rank22Rush Offense DVOA Rank3
Pass Defense DVOA Rank18Pass Defense DVOA Rank11
Rush Defense DVOA Rank28Rush Defense DVOA Rank15

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

N/A

The Vikings already run their offense through Dalvin Cook, but now comes an extremely welcome matchup against a poor run defense. Give me Dalvin’s over in yards, please and thank you.

 

Trench Talk

Cowboys

Vikings

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking18PFF’s Pass Block Ranking27
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking14PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking30

Advantage

The Vikings have two awful line situations. The Cowboys will have the advantage on both sides. Is it enough to make up for the defensive efficiencies they have? I’m not so sure.

 

Chiefs at Raiders

 

Line: Chiefs -7.5

Chiefs (8-1) overall, (6-3) ATSRaiders (6-3) overall, (6-3) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank1Pass Offense DVOA Rank7
Rush Offense DVOA Rank21Rush Offense DVOA Rank12
Pass Defense DVOA Rank7Pass Defense DVOA Rank19
Rush Defense DVOA Rank30Rush Defense DVOA Rank26

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

The Chiefs passing offense is always going to be a strength, and this week is no different. Josh Jacobs should have opportunities against the 30th ranked rush defense. Jacobs over in yards, but gameflow could always force Las Vegas to pass more frequently.

 

Trench Talk

Chiefs

Raiders

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking8PFF’s Pass Block Ranking19
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking26PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking31

Advantage

Mahomes is going to have all day going against this weak pass rush. Another notch in what was already a significant Chiefs passing advantage. I’ll take the Chiefs at -7.5.

 

Rams at Bucs

 

Line: Bucs -4

Rams (6-3) overall, (5-4) ATSBucs (7-3) overall, (5-5) ATS
Pass Offense DVOA Rank17Pass Offense DVOA Rank9
Rush Offense DVOA Rank1Rush Offense DVOA Rank14
Pass Defense DVOA Rank9Pass Defense DVOA Rank1
Rush Defense DVOA Rank12Rush Defense DVOA Rank2

Strength in matchup

Strength in matchup

N/AThe Rams have struggled passing the ball of late, and this Tampa Bay defense shouldn’t offer much to change that. An interesting strength on strength matchup between LA’s rushing offense and the Bucs run defense.

 

Trench Talk

Rams

Bucs

PFF’s Pass Block Ranking10PFF’s Pass Block Ranking14
PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking6PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking4

Advantage

These are two pretty evenly matched teams throughout. If the line moves much more in the Bucs favor, I’d be inclined to take the Rams to cover.

 

My Favorite Picks ATS

After finishing the above, the games ATS that stick out to me:

  • Cardinals +3
  • Patriots -2
  • Saints -5
  • Chargers -8.5

Best Teams Against the Spread

Now that we’ve taken a look at each matchup, let’s take a quick look at teams doing well against the spread, those not, and what sticks out. 

 

Team

Record ATS

Steelers

7-2

Dolphins7-2
Giants7-3
Bengals6-3
Packers6-3
Vikings6-3
Raiders6-3
Chiefs6-3

The Steelers, Packers and Chiefs are three of the top teams in the NFL, so it’s not surprising to see their inclusion in the above.

It’s the other teams that stick out, particularly the sub-.500 teams: Giants, Bengals, and Vikings.

Worst Teams Against the Spread

 

Team

Record ATS

Cowboys1-8
Jets2-7
Texans2-7
Browns3-6
Eagles3-6
Titans3-6
49ers4-6

 

Similar logic to above, it’s not surprising to see teams like the Cowboys, Jets, Texans or even my hapless Eagles here. They’ve all been bad all year. We’ll cut the Niners some slack due to their onslaught of injuries.

The Browns and Titans are particularly interesting teams to see in this group, both currently at 6-3. 

This week, the Browns are -3 favorites hosting the Eagles, while the Titans are +6.5 underdogs at Baltimore.

I don’t feel inclined to take them in either of these games. The Browns game offers a bit of a logjam in this section, as the Eagles have been just as poor ATS. My advice? Stay away.

That’s going to do it for this week. Was this helpful for you? How can I be better? Drop me a line on Twitter @griffybets and let’s keep the train rolling.

Best of luck this weekend.

 

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Griffin’s working to find betting value where others may not. With a main focus on the NFL, consider Griffin your go-to resource for matchup breakdowns, including in the trenches and receivers vs. corners. Follow @griffybets on Twitter for more articles and videos. NBA breakdowns will be the primary focus during the NFL offseason.