Moving forward, I want to be a resource for you all. A one-stop shop of what you need to know for each and every game. I may offer some picks at the end, but my main objective is to consolidate the data I think matters for each game in an engaging way to help give you the information you need when placing your bets.
The factors I’ve brought in:
- Offensive/Defensive DVOA rankings from Football Outsiders
- For those who don’t know, DVOA is a measure of team’s efficiency. It takes stats a level deeper than just the NFL rankings for most yards or points, which can be skewed by gameflow. A description of the metric can be found here.
- PFF’s Grade for Pass Blocking and PFF’s Grade for Pass Rush
- Games start in the trenches, and a disruptive defensive line can change an entire game. Important to compare these matchups
- Overlap: where strengths/weaknesses align in each matchup
This is a trial run for this column. Did I miss something that you value when looking at the board? Disagree with the importance of any of the above? Love everything about me? Any and all feedback and discussion is welcomed over on Twitter. Follow me @griffybets.
Week 11 Games
I’ve compiled these breakdowns for every single Week 11 game. The away team is on the left, the home team is on the right. This is an experiment and I value any feedback on its helpfulness. Let’s go.
Cardinals at Seahawks
|
Line: Seahawks -3 |
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| Cardinals (6-3) overall, (5-4) ATS | Seahawks (6-3) overall, (5-4) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 13 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 4 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 4 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 9 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 13 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 26 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 11 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 9 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
| The Cardinals should be able to exploit Seattle through the air early and often. Most teams have, but Arizona has the weapons to replicate their 37-point output against this team four weeks ago. | Seattle should also have success through the air. Expect a high-scoring affair. The over is the highest of the week, at 57. Load up on player props for both of these teams passing games. | ||
|
Trench Talk |
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|
Cardinals |
Seahawks |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 3 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 15 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 27 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 29 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| Kyler should have plenty of time to pick apart this Seattle team struggling to get to the passer. The disparity between Arizona’s pass blocking and Seattle’s pass rushing is enough to consider taking Arizona at +3. | |||
Titans at Ravens
|
Line: Ravens -6.5 |
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| Titans (6-3) overall, (3-6) ATS | Ravens (6-3) overall, (4-5) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 2 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 22 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 5 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 11 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 25 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 10 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 19 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 3 |
|
Matchup analysis |
|||
| This is a strength on strength matchup. Tennessee has a strong offense, but may not be able to capitalize going against a stingy Ravens defense.
Lamar Jackson hasn’t been his MVP self, this game offers a get-right opportunity – do you trust him? |
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|
Trench Talk |
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|
Titans |
Ravens |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 29 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 5 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 21 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 25 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| The Ravens should fare well against a non-threatening Titans defensive line. If Lamar can get some time to throw, maybe he can take opportunities down the field against a vulnerable Tennessee secondary. | |||
Lions at Panthers
|
Line: Panthers -1.5 |
|||
| Lions (4-5) overall, (4-5) ATS | Panthers (3-7) overall, (5-5) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 16 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 10 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 16 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 8 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 23 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 24 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 27 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 25 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
| Not quite as strong offensively as Carolina, but the Lions should be able to score against an equally weak defense.
Keep an eye on injury news for Stafford and Golladay. This line will likely shift if they are ruled out. |
The Panthers should have opportunities to move the ball against a weak Detroit defense. Carolina’s offensive numbers were one of the bigger surprises to see. I’ll be looking to take the over when this game posts. | ||
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Trench Talk |
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|
Lions |
Panthers |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 9 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 16 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 22 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 7 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| I’d say these units cancel each other out, not much to see here. | |||
Steelers at Jaguars
|
Line: Steelers -10 |
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| Steelers (9-0) overall, (7-2) ATS | Jaguars (1-8) overall, (4-5) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 15 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 23 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 29 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 23 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 2 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 31 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 6 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 20 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
| The Steelers should be able to shut Jacksonville down offensively.
When Pittsburgh has the ball, expect to see the passing game take advantage of a weak Jacksonville secondary. Take Steelers WRs props. |
N/A |
||
|
Trench Talk |
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|
Steelers |
Jaguars |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 6 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 20 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 2 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 23 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| A clear advantage across the board for Pittsburgh, which isn’t revolutionary considering one team is undefeated, and one team has lost eight straight games.
The spread is high. The Steelers failed to cover their last double-digit spread and Jacksonville covered a double-digit underdog spread just last week. Will history repeat itself? |
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Patriots at Texans
|
Line: Patriots -2 |
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| Patriots (4-5) overall, (4-5) ATS | Texans (2-7) overall, (2-7) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 25 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 11 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 2 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 32 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 30 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 22 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 31 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 32 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
| Will the Patriots finally commit to one running back? Damien Harris looked great on Sunday, and I want all the Harris props I can get. As good as a DVOA advantage as we’re going to get in this rush offense going against Houston’s rush defense. I like Patriots -2 because of this. | The passing game should have opportunities against this very weak secondary. Keep your eye on the availability of Pats corner Stephon Gilmore, who has missed the last three games. His presence makes the 30th rank moot. | ||
|
Trench Talk |
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| Patriots |
Texans |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 13 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 7 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 24 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 28 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| The Texans double-down on their passing game advantage with these rankings. If Gilmore does not play, Watson, Fuller and Cooks should have big days. | |||
Eagles at Browns
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Line: Browns -3.5 |
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| Eagles (3-5-1) overall, (3-6) ATS | Browns (6-3) overall, (3-6) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 30 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 19 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 15 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 7 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 21 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 20 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 13 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 18 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
|
N/A |
This rushing attack is coming off 100+ yard games for both Chubb and Hunt. The Eagles just let the Giants run all over them and could be in for a similar game this weekend. | ||
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Trench Talk |
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|
Eagles |
Browns |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 21 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 1 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 1 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 16 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| Wow – two top units going at it this weekend should be interesting to watch, but cancels out any advantages. | |||
Falcons at Saints
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Line: Saints -5 |
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| Falcons (3-6) overall, (4-5) ATS | Saints (7-2) overall, (4-5) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 12 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 8 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 30 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 6 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 28 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 6 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 7 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 1 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
|
N/A |
Keep in mind that Drew Brees is out. I don’t think his absence will matter, as he’s looked a bit cooked this year. This is a strong Saints team in every facet. Even without Brees, I like them to cover the -5 with rankings like this. | ||
|
Trench Talk |
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| Falcons |
Saints |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 25 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 17 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 11 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 7 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| The Saints should be able to harass Matt Ryan all day. | |||
Bengals at Washington
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Line: Washington -1.5 |
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| Bengals (2-6-1) overall, (6-3) ATS | WFT (2-7) overall, (4-5) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 24 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 31 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 24 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 20 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 29 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 5 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 21 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 14 |
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Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
|
N/A |
A surprising fifth ranked defensive passing team will have chances against the rookie Burrow. | ||
|
Trench Talk |
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|
Bengals |
Washington |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking |
26 |
PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 12 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 32 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 10 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| Washington with clearly better lines on both sides. Has me leaning towards the home team to cover the small 1.5-point spread. | |||
Dolphins at Broncos
|
Line: Dolphins -3.5 |
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| Dolphins (6-3) overall, (7-2) ATS | Broncos (3-6) overall, (5-4) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 14 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 32 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 27 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 26 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 8 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 12 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 29 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 17 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
| Drew Lock should struggle getting anything going through the air against this Dolphins team.
Without a passing game, the Dolphins should be in a good position to win their sixth straight. |
The Broncos should have some success shutting down the Dolphins run game. My only takeaway from that is to avoid Dolphins props on Sunday. | ||
|
Trench Talk |
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|
Dolphins |
Broncos |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 24 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 28 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 15 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 13 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| Both pass rush units seem to have opportunities to get to the opposing quarterback. With Denver already the worst ranked passing offense, this doesn’t help their chances of remedying that. | |||
Jets at Chargers
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Line: Chargers -8.5 |
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| Jets (0-9) overall, (2-7) ATS | Chargers (2-7) overall, (5-4) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 29 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 5 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 28 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 25 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 32 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 15 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 10 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 24 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
| The Jets on paper should be able to shut down the Chargers running game, so I’ll steer clear of the LA RBs. With the way they shuffle them in and out, that’s a good practice to get into anyway. | Justin Herbert should have himself a day going against the last-ranked Jets pass defense. Will be wanting his and other Charger WR props on Sunday. | ||
|
Trench Talk |
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|
Jets |
Chargers |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 30 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 23 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 20 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 7 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| The Chargers have a clear advantage in getting to the passer in this one. That, coupled with the advantage on offense has me wanting the Chargers at -8.5. | |||
Packers at Colts
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Line: Colts -2 |
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| Packers (7-2) overall, (6-3) ATS | Colts (6-3) overall, (5-4) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 3 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 20 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 13 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 18 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 16 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 4 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 22 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 4 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
|
N/A |
This is a strong Colts defense getting one its biggest tests of the year in Aaron Rodgers. The Colts performed well against another strong DVOA offense in the Titans last week. | ||
|
Trench Talk |
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|
Packers |
Colts |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 2 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 4 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 18 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 12 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| Both offenses should have time to throw in this one, with two of the best pass blocking units in the NFL. | |||
Cowboys at Vikings
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Line: Vikings -7 |
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|
Cowboys (2-7) overall, (1-8) ATS |
Vikings (4-5) overall, (6-3) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 28 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 18 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 22 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 3 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 18 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 11 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 28 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 15 |
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Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
|
N/A |
The Vikings already run their offense through Dalvin Cook, but now comes an extremely welcome matchup against a poor run defense. Give me Dalvin’s over in yards, please and thank you. | ||
|
Trench Talk |
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|
Cowboys |
Vikings |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 18 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 27 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 14 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 30 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| The Vikings have two awful line situations. The Cowboys will have the advantage on both sides. Is it enough to make up for the defensive efficiencies they have? I’m not so sure. | |||
Chiefs at Raiders
|
Line: Chiefs -7.5 |
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| Chiefs (8-1) overall, (6-3) ATS | Raiders (6-3) overall, (6-3) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 1 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 7 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 21 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 12 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 7 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 19 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 30 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 26 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
| The Chiefs passing offense is always going to be a strength, and this week is no different. | Josh Jacobs should have opportunities against the 30th ranked rush defense. Jacobs over in yards, but gameflow could always force Las Vegas to pass more frequently. | ||
|
Trench Talk |
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|
Chiefs |
Raiders |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 8 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 19 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 26 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 31 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| Mahomes is going to have all day going against this weak pass rush. Another notch in what was already a significant Chiefs passing advantage. I’ll take the Chiefs at -7.5. | |||
Rams at Bucs
|
Line: Bucs -4 |
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| Rams (6-3) overall, (5-4) ATS | Bucs (7-3) overall, (5-5) ATS | ||
| Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 17 | Pass Offense DVOA Rank | 9 |
| Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 1 | Rush Offense DVOA Rank | 14 |
| Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 9 | Pass Defense DVOA Rank | 1 |
| Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 12 | Rush Defense DVOA Rank | 2 |
|
Strength in matchup |
Strength in matchup |
||
| N/A | The Rams have struggled passing the ball of late, and this Tampa Bay defense shouldn’t offer much to change that. An interesting strength on strength matchup between LA’s rushing offense and the Bucs run defense. | ||
|
Trench Talk |
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|
Rams |
Bucs |
||
| PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 10 | PFF’s Pass Block Ranking | 14 |
| PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 6 | PFF’s Pass Rush Ranking | 4 |
|
Advantage |
|||
| These are two pretty evenly matched teams throughout. If the line moves much more in the Bucs favor, I’d be inclined to take the Rams to cover. | |||
My Favorite Picks ATS
After finishing the above, the games ATS that stick out to me:
- Cardinals +3
- Patriots -2
- Saints -5
- Chargers -8.5
Best Teams Against the Spread
Now that we’ve taken a look at each matchup, let’s take a quick look at teams doing well against the spread, those not, and what sticks out.
|
Team |
Record ATS |
| Steelers |
7-2 |
| Dolphins | 7-2 |
| Giants | 7-3 |
| Bengals | 6-3 |
| Packers | 6-3 |
| Vikings | 6-3 |
| Raiders | 6-3 |
| Chiefs | 6-3 |
The Steelers, Packers and Chiefs are three of the top teams in the NFL, so it’s not surprising to see their inclusion in the above.
It’s the other teams that stick out, particularly the sub-.500 teams: Giants, Bengals, and Vikings.
Worst Teams Against the Spread
|
Team |
Record ATS |
| Cowboys | 1-8 |
| Jets | 2-7 |
| Texans | 2-7 |
| Browns | 3-6 |
| Eagles | 3-6 |
| Titans | 3-6 |
| 49ers | 4-6 |
Similar logic to above, it’s not surprising to see teams like the Cowboys, Jets, Texans or even my hapless Eagles here. They’ve all been bad all year. We’ll cut the Niners some slack due to their onslaught of injuries.
The Browns and Titans are particularly interesting teams to see in this group, both currently at 6-3.
This week, the Browns are -3 favorites hosting the Eagles, while the Titans are +6.5 underdogs at Baltimore.
I don’t feel inclined to take them in either of these games. The Browns game offers a bit of a logjam in this section, as the Eagles have been just as poor ATS. My advice? Stay away.
That’s going to do it for this week. Was this helpful for you? How can I be better? Drop me a line on Twitter @griffybets and let’s keep the train rolling.
Best of luck this weekend.
