Whoever invented the addition of Saturday NFL games at the end of the season was a genius. Having two games to bet on Sunday along with Christmas basketball is going to make for a fantastic holiday.
If you are betting on Christmas, you want to win. Losing is a quick way to ruin the holiday, so to prevent failure, you must prepare. Blind bets with the hopes of winning are never a good idea.
— Knup Sports (@KnupSports) December 23, 2021
I have been thinking of my Christmas bets for weeks because I need a distraction from the family members I do not want to see (kidding!…Maybe). We have two epic matchups on Sunday, with the early game featuring the Browns and Packers.
Before we win on the late game, we need to start with a bang in the afternoon!
Packers vs Browns: Game Notes
The Green Bay Packers (11-3) will host the Cleveland Browns (7-7) at Lambeau Field on Sunday. The Christmas kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 PM ET.
Green Bay is playing for the first seed in the NFC after clinching the NFC North on Sunday by beating the Ravens 31-30. After beating the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals, the team is looking for a sweep against the AFC North.
On Monday, the Browns fought hard against the Raiders but were defeated on a last-second field goal. It was a valiant effort for a team that was mangled by COVID-19.
On paper, the Packers are a much better football team. They have won games in 2021 and covered. The phrase states that good teams win, but great teams cover. This statement would classify the Packers as a great team.
The Browns have talent, but they definitely have not played up to their ability. If Cleveland wins, they will be right back in the postseason picture, but they will face a lot of adversity to pick up the victory.
Packers vs Browns: The Spread
The Packers are currently favored by 7.5 points with a -355 money line. This is a fair line, but there is still a ton of uncertainty regarding who will play for Cleveland. Baker Mayfield is expected to start, but his status is questionable.
It does not appear like Mayfield will travel to Wisconsin with the team to avoid spreading COVID-19. The quarterback has also not been present at practice for an extended period, which could hurt his performance.
For Cleveland to cover the spread, they must run the football behind Nick Chubb. This is the approach they took against Las Vegas, and the Browns wore down the Raiders on the line of scrimmage.
This will be tougher against Rashan Gary and the Packers on the road, so the safe bet is to ride with the Browns.
Packers vs Browns: The Total
The total is listed at 45.5, and 79% of bets are being placed on the over. However, the under deserves some consideration with how the Browns play football.
Most bets are being placed on the over because the Packers throw the ball, and Mayfield will be forced to match the approach. There is a slim chance that Cleveland controls the line of scrimmage and keeps this game under.
The way to beat the Packers is to keep Aaron Rodgers on the sideline and take away possessions by controlling the clock. Chubb will be the feature back on Sunday, and I expect him to get a lot of carries.
The Browns will still need to throw the ball to win because they are not talented enough to hold down Rodgers. For this reason, the over is the better bet of the two.
Packers vs Browns: Props
As of Thursday, props are not posted for Saturday’s matchup, but here are a few bets you should view.
I like Davante Adams going over his receiving total because he has done this in four of his past five games. This includes three 100+ receiving days. I also Adams for an anytime TD is smart considering he has five in his past two games.
For the Browns, I would bet over on Chubb’s carry total. I would fade his yardage number, but the Browns have shown they will keep hammering until the rock breaks. This would equate to an over for the running back’s carries.
We are going to win on Christmas, win more on Sunday, and clean up on Monday.
Merry Christmas. LET’S RIDE!