- The 8-2 Green Bay Packers are coming off of a 17-0 win versus the Seattle Seahawks
- The 4-5 Minnesota Vikings are in second place in the NFC North and are 8th in the NFC Playoff picture.
- The Packers lead the all-time series 63-55-3. The Vikings are 29-30 at home.
The Green Bay Packers are one of the league’s best teams, sitting at 8-2. Their only losses came in Week 1 against the Saints in one of the oddest games of the season, and then to the surging Kansas City Chiefs while Rodgers was on the COVID-19 list.
According to Lineups.com, the Packers boast a top-5 defense, ranking 5th in passing yards against and 6th in total yards against. Their offense is also top-5, though, is incredibly poor in red-zone percentage, ranking 25th.
The Vikings are one of the league’s more confusing teams. They are 4-5, yet could just as easily be 7-2 (I’ll talk about that more in-depth later).
Despite their poor record, the Vikings have a top-12 offense ranking first in 4th down%, first in interceptions allowed second in total turnovers, and first in sacks allowed.
Much like their offense, the Vikings also have a top-12 defense, leading the league in sacks and ranking 6th in 3rd down conversion%.
Packers vs Vikings Matchup at a Glance
- Sport: NFL
- Teams: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
- Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis Minnesota
- Date: November 21st, 2021
- Betting Odds: GB -1.5 OU 47.5 GB -120 MIN +100
Packers Preview: The [Almost] Perfect Packers
Aside from an incredibly odd Packers vs. Saints game and an Aaron Rodgers-less loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Packers have been a dominant football team.
They boast a massive win over the 49ers, where Aaron Rodgers drove the field in under a minute in need of a field goal. The Packers followed that up with a win against the Steelers, tying the most points scored on that incredible defense.
There was the odd special teams’ mishap against the Bengals in which Mason Crosby went 4/7 while Bengals kicker Even McPherson went 0/2.
But perhaps their best win was on the road against the Cardinals. The Cardinals were still undefeated, while the Packers were missing star receiver Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. Yet, the Packers came away with the win courtesy of a game-sealing interception deep in their endzone.
As the Packers face a struggling Vikings team, they have a chance to not only widen their division lead but keep on pace for an NFC and NFL best record (the Titians are also 8-2).
Vikings Preview: The [Finally] Victorious Vikings
You would not know it from looking at the records, but the Vikings are genuinely a good football team. After an untimely OT fumble and a missed chipshot field goal, the Vikings could secure a .500 record with a victory over the Carolina Panthers.
However, after that, the Vikings lost a primetime game against Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys (a sentence you do not read every day). They then blew a 14-point 3rd quarter lead to the Ravens, only to force overtime, intercept Lamar, and go three and out.
It would now seem that after winning against the Los Angeles Chargers 27-20, this could be a chance for the Vikings to not only return to .500 but to get a statement win against an old divisional foe.
Odds & Free Betting Analysis for This NFL Game
My favorite place to go when making gambling picks is team history.
Currently, the Packers are 9-1 against the spread (the only loss was back in Week 1 against the Saints), which tells me that the Packers are pretty good at beating the spread, which means Vegas seems to be doubting them a little bit.
The Vikings, as I expected, are 5-4 against the spread. That indicates to me two things. First, the Vikings are unpredictable, and second, they may be a little overvalued at times (much like when they were -4 against the Cowboys and Cooper Rush).
Based on those two trends, I feel comfortable saying that the Packers are going to beat the spread. I already thought it when I looked at an initial line of the Packers by -1.5, but the historical data confirmed it.
As for the over/under, I think that historical trends paint an interesting picture as well.
While the Vikings may be 4-5 against the total, all four of their overs came during road games, and Minnesota has yet to hit the over on a total for one of their games.
And the Packers are even more telling, at 2-8 against the total; the Packers have only hit the over once on the road in six different attempts.
I would have to imagine it is some combination of the Packers’ offense being overvalued (as well as outliers like NO and KC games) and their defense being undervalued.
With those trends in mind, and knowing that the total is set at 47.5, I am inclined to take the under.
As for who wins the money line? I’ll take the Packers. I seldom bet against Aaron Rodgers, and I am not going to start doing so now.
Packers vs Vikings Pick
- KnupSports.com Free Betting Pick: Packers 24, Vikings 21
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