What a great few weeks of NFL action! For those following along, I’ve gone 36-20 (+22 units) since Thanksgiving. These preview picks have had a nice range of success as well, and there are a few I like for tonight’s game. Here is my Ravens at Browns betting pick and preview to go along with it!
Let’s get to it. We’ll break down the teams, some PFF rankings, prop picks and thoughts on the spread.
Toss me a follow on Twitter (@griffybets) for all things NFL, I’m always here as a resource for you.
8-5 today, 10-5 Week 14
Gordon over 56.5 💰
Brown over 60.5 💰
Montgomery over 67.5 💰
Davis over 65.5 ❌
Adams over 91.5 💰
Jones over 66.5 💰
Lazard over 44.5 ❌
Metcalf over 82.5 ❌
IND -3 💰
Packers over 32.5 ❌
M. Thomas over 70.5 💰
McLaurin under 68.5 💰
— Griffin Carroll (@griffybets) December 14, 2020
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
8:15 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Ravens -3.0
Forecast: 29 degrees, 25 mph gusts
Baltimore (7-5) overall, (6-6) ATS
Baltimore beat up on Dallas this past Tuesday, winning 34-17. The win snapped a three-game skid for the Ravens, who have struggled to maintain the offensive success they had a year ago.
Lamar Jackson has struggled passing the ball, with a mediocre wide receiving group. The team is built around the run, with three runners splitting the duties. Snap count trends suggest JK Dobbins is the lead-back.
The defense has also struggled this year, coming in at 20th overall. Forget the stereotype you associate with Ravens defenses, because this team is not that.
Cleveland (9-3) overall, (5-7) ATS
The Browns have won four straight, most recently a 41-35 win over Tennessee that wasn’t nearly as close as the score suggests.
Cleveland has the number one offensive line in the NFL, tops in both run and pass blocking.
The defense is middling, coming in ranked 18th overall, with their best unit being the pass rush. Myles Garrett leads that charge, with 10.5 sacks on the year.
Player Props to Target
Let’s quickly compare these two teams PFF rankings:
Baltimore on Offense
Running grade (18) vs. Browns Rush Defense grade (16) -2
Receiving grade (27) vs. Browns Pass Coverage grade (20) -7
Cleveland on Offense
Running grade (4) vs. Ravens Rush defense grade (17) +13
Receiving grade (8) vs. Ravens Pass coverage grade (16) +8
An intriguing advantage for Cleveland across the board has me drawn to all things Browns. Props-wise, it’s got to be the Chubb and Hunt show again. They split snaps a week ago and I’d expect more of the same.
The weather further validates the value in Cleveland’s running game, with expected winds nearing 25 mph.
With that established, I’ll save a long-winding description of why I like this prop.
- Kareem Hunt OVER 46.5 rushing yards
I don’t think you can go wrong with taking Chubb’s over either, which is at 81.5. It’s significantly higher, so I prefer Hunt.
There’s equal opportunity for these two runners in this offense. The last four weeks averaged snaps played: Chubb (49.75%), Hunt (50.75%).
Thoughts on the Spread and Ravens at Browns Betting Pick
I love the Browns at +3 in this one. Across the board, they are ranked as the better team, highlighted by the top offensive line in the entire league.
As a home dog, this is tremendous value. Baltimore has underperformed all year and does not have a single advantage on paper.
This is a great test for the system we’ve been following lately. It’s a clear win for the Browns in the matchup comparison.
Cleveland has a stigma around them, but I’m starting to become a believer that this team may just be a legitimate 9-3.
Let me know on Twitter @griffybets, if you’re riding with me. Thanks for reading and good luck tonight.