We continue on with our Wild Card Weekend betting picks, next up: Ravens at Titans betting preview.
For a full breakdown of offensive matchup breakdowns, check out the math over here: NFL Wild Card Weekend Bets: Matchup Breakdowns.
Additional game previews, props and picks will be shared throughout the week on Twitter, so make sure you’re following, @griffybets. Let’s get to it!
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1:05, ESPN
Line: Ravens -3
#5 Baltimore (11-5 overall), (10-6 ATS)
#4 Tennessee (11-5 overall), (7-9 ATS)
Baltimore Passing Offense
Receiving grade (27) vs. Titans Pass Coverage grade (12)
Passing DVOA (17) vs. Titans Pass Defense DVOA (30)
Net difference: -2
Baltimore Rushing Offense
Running grade (4) vs. Titans Rush Defense grade (17)
Rushing DVOA (3) vs. Titans Rush Defense DVOA (16)
Net difference: +26
Tennessee Passing Offense
Receiving grade (2) vs. Ravens Pass coverage grade (9)
Passing DVOA (4) vs. Ravens Pass Defense DVOA (10)
Net difference: +13
Tennessee Rushing Offense
Running grade (1) vs. Ravens Rush defense grade (15)
Rushing DVOA (2) vs. Ravens Rush Defense DVOA (12)
Net difference: +24
Ravens at Titans Betting Preview: Thoughts on the Game
Finally – something to feel good about on offense! For those who’ve read all my game previews (found here) – you’ll know how little advantages we’ve found for the offensive side of the ball thus far.
We’ve got a breath of fresh air in the first Sunday game, and I’m excited to watch.
I’ve said this on Twitter, but I cannot understand why the Ravens are favored on the road in this one.
I'm a bit confused why the Titans are 3.5-point home dogs this weekend against the Ravens. This is one of the best offenses in the entire NFL going against a fine, not great, Ravens D.
Lock me in on that early line right now.
— GriffinCarroll (@griffybets) January 4, 2021
Yes – Baltimore has won five straight games, but these teams had a combined record of 28-51.
This is not the Ravens defense that you likely associate with the franchise. It’s a fine defense, don’t get me wrong – but it’s not great.
This Titans offense is great. The rankings above show that, so do the stats (3rd in total yards, 4th in points scored).
I’m riding Tennessee’s loaded attack, trusting their average defense can keep a middling Baltimore offense in check. Lamar looks better of late but he most definitely did not take a step forward this year.
Don’t sleep on the fact that the Titans made a run to the AFC Championship a year ago – that experience matters come playoff time.
Game pick: Titans +3.5
Teaser pick: 6-pt teaser, Titans +9, over 48.5 (-110)
Player Props to Target: Ravens
The Ravens should be able to run the ball against this Tennessee defense, it’s one of the biggest offensive disparities of the weekend.
Yes, Jackson is obviously a massive rushing threat for the Ravens, but I’d prefer to focus on the running back position here.
It’s been a two-man show of late between JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
Snap counts, carries, YPC, and touchdowns, last four weeks:
- Dobbins: 52.3% average snaps played, 51 carries, 7 YPC, five touchdowns
- Edwards: 36%, 43 carries, 5.6 YPC, two touchdowns,
Sunday Prop Lines:
- Dobbins props: 71.5 yards, -115 TD
- Edwards props: 42.5 yards, +175 TD
I said this last week and I’ll say it again – I think both are good value. This team’s identity starts with the run.
Both get pretty even work in the redzone also, if you’re more interested in touchdown props.
While a split backfield can give you pause, I’m starting to enjoy it. The lines are significantly lower and we know both will get their chances.
Update: the line for Dobbins shot up to 71.5 from 61.5 earlier in the weekend. I still prefer Dobbins over and to score, but Edwards starts to offer better value in this one. I don’t think you can go wrong with either runner.
Player Props to Target: Titans
As we’ve discussed, the Tennessee offense is one of the best in the league. They have advantages in both the run game and through the air.
It should be no secret to you how great of a year Derrick Henry has had. With success, comes high lines, and this weekend is no different. Henry’s over is set at 118.5 rushing yards. It’s high, but I’m taking it.
Same goes for AJ Brown’s receiving total: currently at 67.5 yards.
I’ve bet this pair of stars for a week and I can’t stop now – especially in a game they have advantages. This offense runs through both.
Prop pick: Henry OVER 118.5 yards & AJ Brown OVER 67.5 yards
That will do it for this Wild Card preview. Make sure you’re following on Twitter, @griffybets, for my latest. Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend!
Breakdowns for every game can be found here: NFL Playoffs Primer: Wild Card Weekend