Time to catch our breath before the Sunday Night game between the Browns and the Giants. Let’s take a look at a couple of Sunday Night bets to wrap up the weekend. Make sure you’re following along on Twitter, @griffybets, for all things props and picks.
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants
8:20 PM EST, NBC
Line: Browns -6
Forecast: 38 degrees, no wind/rain
Cleveland (9-4) overall, (5-8 ATS)
The Browns are coming off a massively entertaining 47-42 loss to the Ravens on Monday night football.
The game highlighted two things. One, this offense is legitimately explosive. The two-man running back committee of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is going to wear down teams. Baker Mayfield is showing poise in the pocket, distributing the ball to his playmakers and making good decisions with the ball.
The other glaring point? This Browns defense is a problem. I like this Browns team a lot, they are well positioned to make the AFC playoffs, but they’re going to be in shootouts more often than not.
The key to the Browns success has been and will continue to be their dominant offensive line, ranked number one in the NFL in both pass and run blocking, according to PFF.
New York (5-9) overall, (8-5) ATS
The Giants are fresh off a tough 26-7 loss to the Arizona Cardinals that saw their offensive line become a turnstile, allowing eight sacks.
Colt McCoy is back under center for the Giants and this struggling offense.
The Giants match up well with the Browns biggest strength, as New York comes in ranked as the 5th strongest run defense.
Player Props to Target: Sunday Night Bets
Let’s quickly compare these two teams PFF rankings:
Cleveland on Offense
Running grade (3) vs. Giants Rush Defense grade (5) +2
Receiving grade (8) vs. Giants Pass Coverage grade (21) +13
New York on Offense
Running grade (23) vs. Browns Rush defense grade (21) -2
Receiving grade (27) vs. Browns Pass coverage grade (24) -3
I’d avoid the Giants in this game. There is some interesting value in one of the Cleveland receivers, so let’s take a look there.
Receiver breakdown, last three weeks:
- Jarvis Landry (73% average snaps played, 37 targets)
- Rashard Higgins (71%, 29)
More even than you may think, so the value quickly becomes Higgins.
Prop pick: Rashard Higgins OVER 3.5 receptions (-120)
Thoughts on the Spread: Sunday Night Bets
The Browns are the far superior team, and even on the road, I like them to cover the six-point spread.
It’s the eight sacks the Giants let up that really catch my eye. This line allowed Cardinals linebacker Hassan Reddick to get five (!) sacks last week, and now face off against star edge rusher Myles Garrett.
Garrett is the front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year and should wreak havoc tonight against the Giants.
With a slipping Giants secondary, I’d expect Mayfield to spread the ball throughout and deliver Cleveland their first playoff berth since 2002.
The pick: Cleveland -6
For all things NFL, make sure you’re following on Twitter @griffybets. Thanks for reading and good luck tonight.