Fritz vs. Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz is heavily favored against Taylor Fritz in their first ever matchup at the Miami Open. Alcaraz is a lofty -425 on the money line with a spread of -4.0 games. Bookmakers are offering a significant dog number if bettors have the guts to back the American at home. Alcaraz is the defending champion at the Miami Open and is looking to make his first Masters 1000 title defense of his ATP career. Both Fritz and Alcaraz have started the new year on the right foot, as both are winning the matches they should in routine fashion.
The courts at the Miami open play slightly faster than those from Indian Wells last week. The speed of the courts should help keep Fritz in the match, and I think he even has a chance to rip a set (+100) off the young star. I think Fritz has a better chance to win a set than he would be to cover the +4.0 game spread.
If Alcaraz has his way, Fritz will lose 6-4 6-3 in what would be a routine win for “Carlito.” On the other hand, if Fritz is able to break Alcaraz’s serve once, he could have a great shot at completing a set victory.
Even if Fritz is able to win a set, I feel as though Alcaraz will turn on his afterburners and win the match. The match is largely a stay-away betting experience, but there is certainly some value on Fritz – it just depends on how bettors choose to attack the market.
Medvedev vs. Eubanks
Chris Eubanks has been the story of the tournament at the Miami Open. Eubanks, who now owns the #85 ranking in the world, has had himself a career week. Eubanks has taken down world #20 Borna Coric, #65 Gregoire Barrere, and #62 Adrian Manarino.
Eubanks has shown significant improvement in his game this week against players that were expected to defeat him, but he won’t be able to hold a candle to what Medvedev will be bringing to the table this afternoon.
Daniil Medvedev is currently -2000 on the money line and -5.0 on the game spread. It would be shocking to see Eubanks cover the +5.0 game spread – I am expecting a 6-3 6-3 straight set victory at worst for Medvedev.
Medvedev should have no issue advancing past Eubanks, who owns an incredible first serve, but his ground game and second serve are truthfully still Challenger level, and he won’t be able to find much success against the #5 player in the world.