UFC and other mixed martial arts promotions can be fun to bet on, but also very difficult. It takes alot of practice to understand the difference between a good bet and a bad bet in MMA, and line changes are important to try to beat. Here I’ll talk about the most exciting fights this coming weekend, how I think they may play out, and what the best bets are based on my analysis and research.
The fights this weekend will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada at the UFC apex facility. The card will be headlined by a Light Heavyweight matchup between Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill.
— MMA Junkie (@MMAjunkie) February 18, 2022
Although this fight card doesn’t have big names like Israel Adesanya or Max Holloway, it does have a few incredible matchups that I’m looking forward to. I’m going to look at some of the best, underhyped fights on this card.
Abdul Razak Al Hassan vs Joaquin Buckley
Many people may be familiar with Buckley from his insane KO kick he delivered to Impa Kasanganay in October of 2020. Buckley is an exciting striker with crazy hands. He also was KO’d in the first round by Alessio Di Chirico in January of this year.
In the other corner, Al Hassan started his career at 10-1 with 10 knockouts, his only loss coming by decision to UFC veteran Omari Akhmedov. He then lost three straight, two of them by decision before returning to action with a vicious head kick ko only 17 seconds into the first round.
I like Al Hassan in this matchup. I think both fighters are good but Buckley is more likely to get chinned, and the line is Al Hassan at plus money.
- Best Bet: Al Hassan by KO/TKO +250
Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin
This fight could be interesting if Perrin can execute his wrestling, but I see Bautista taking a victory here. Bautista only has two losses in his career, and they’re to Cory Sandhagen and Trevin Giles. Those are two tough fighters, ones you should not be ashamed to lose to.
Perrin is 10-4 to Bautista’s 8-2 record, and I see this playing out on the feet primarily. I like Bautista to try to get a finish, and I like a second round finish to play out.
- Best Bet: Under 2.5 rounds +130
David Onama vs Gabriel Benitez
This is, in my opinion, the most overlooked fight on the card. Onama came into the UFC in a fight against highly touted prospect Mason Jones. He stunned everyone, including Jones in the first round, and fought brilliantly. He went on to lose a decision, but he showed promise in his short notice UFC debut.
Benitez is also a great fighter. He likes to make sure his fights do not go to decision, and has only lost to high level competition. I could definitely see the under 1.5 hitting in this one.
- Best Bet: Under 1.5 +140
Jim Miller vs Nikolas Motta
Jim Miller is a legend with 33 wins and 18 of them by submission. Assuming he steps into the octagon on Saturday he will extend his record of most UFC fights of all time with 39, and will extend his lightweight fight record to 37, the most in the division.
Motta is a Dana White Contender Series alum, but he won a three round decision and has not fought since, despite his last fight being over 14 months ago. Motta is skilled and has KO power, but Miller has better strike accuracy and has the experience advantage.
Motta is around -175 right now while Miller is +150. In my eyes Miller has the wrestling advantage, the striking accuracy advantage, and the obvious experience advantage. I like Jim Miller by decision.
- Best Bets: Jim Miller +150, Miller by Sub +300, Miller by decision +550. Pick your poison.