UFC Vegas 18 – Betting Picks and Predictions
In an awesome showdown right before the Super Bowl, UFC Vegas 18 will be taking place Saturday, February 6th, with the title fight being Alexander Volkov taking on Alistair Overeem. With plenty of close fights in this one and a virtual toss-up, expect betters to flock towards the UFC this weekend before loading up on their Super Bowl bets.
With many fights this weekend only having slight favorites, there will be plenty of action on both the favorites and the underdogs with people looking for value. Only one of the fights, Cory Sandhagen (-400) and Frankie Edgar (+300), are considered truly “untouchable.”
It’s been a few years since the UFC hosted an event right before the Super Bowl. It was almost becoming a tradition on its own, having an awesome fight between people trying to kill each other the night before the Super Bowl. Hopefully, this will be the start of that again.
Below are three great betting plays Saturday night, hopefully enough to get you some bankroll for the big game Sunday!
Alexander Volkov -190
Right off the bat, let’s look at the main event of the night. Alexander Volkov is facing off against Allistair Overeem. Fan-favorite Overeem is an underdog in this one, getting a healthy +155 line against him.
In most cases, we would expect Overeem to get more respect on the moneyline, given how much of the public tends to support him. This just shows how much of a favorite Volkov actually is. If Volkov was facing any other fighter in similar circumstances, we could expect a moneyline closer to +250.
Vegas not only expect Volkov to win, but to win quick. With the odds for the fighting finishing under 1.5 rounds at +165, and the fight going the distance at +225, most expect this fight to be over sooner rather than later.
Don’t get sucked into the personality of Overeem. He is fun to root for, but this one is an easy pick for Volkov at -190 odds. Usually, fighters this favored have unrealistic betting lines; take advantage of this one while it’s still out there. If you can parlay a Volkov win with a bet that the fight won’t finish inside the distance, go for it.
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Macy Chiasson -215
Are you looking for a sure thing? It doesn’t exist in UFC with odds better than -400. But the odds of Macy Chiasson pounding Marion Reneau into oblivion are very good. Chiasson is a straight-up beast in the cage, and there is little doubt she will have the opportunity to push Reneau around to her will Saturday.
Reneau has the experience, but her age is definitely a factor in this matchup against Chiasson. With a young, fast fighter like Chiasson, who fights very aggressively, there is serious doubt if Reneau still has the reaction time to counter her.
Chiasson might not be able to close this fight before it gets to the judge’s scorecards, but she is expected to dominate the early part of the battle. Even if she starts to fade in the last round, unless Reneau can end the fight herself, there is no way she is going to out strike Chiasson.
A line at -215 needs to be taken at Chiasson, because it’s only going to go higher if there is any movement on it.
Clay Guida +180
It is rather odd that Michael Johnson and Clay Guida’s matchup isn’t closer in the betting lines. Johnson is a -220 favorite, while Guida is a +180 underdog. While Johnson might be the overall better fighter, this fight should almost be a toss up when comparing the two for this matchup.
Johnson is coming off of three straight losses, and not looking that great in any of them. While Guida isn’t looking so great himself, his clear weaknesses are not Johnson’s strength. It’s basically a statistical fact that Guida doesn’t have a submission defense. Four of his last six defeats were by submission.
Johnson has never won a fight by submission. In his entire career.
Both men are looking about the same going into this fight. From a raw fighter perspective, Guida might arguably be the better of the two. Historical data and results are behind Johnson being such a massive favorite, but it’s hard to pass up the value at +180 when the fight should really be around +120.